***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 9999.0 0.0 4.7 2.5 86.2 83.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 4.4 6.0 5.2 3.1 93.3 87.6 0.1 1.7 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 6.6 8.3 5.0 2.9 92.4 88.1 2.1 3.9 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 2.0 3.9 2.9 3.2 92.1 88.2 -4.9 -1.9 -0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 3.0 4.9 3.2 2.9 91.7 87.5 -0.6 0.9 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 2.2 3.5 0.8 2.6 88.7 85.4 -1.2 0.2 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 4.2 6.3 5.2 3.1 91.5 86.8 -0.1 2.1 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 -2.4 0.4 1.0 2.6 90.1 85.5 -8.2 -5.9 -3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 4.4 6.8 3.6 2.9 95.3 89.8 0.6 1.9 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 3.9 6.0 2.0 2.8 94.1 88.6 0.3 1.3 3.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 3.7 5.4 2.5 2.7 91.8 87.2 -0.2 1.3 3.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 2.2 3.8 1.5 2.4 86.9 83.4 -0.9 0.2 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 3.1 4.4 1.7 2.5 86.4 85.1 -0.2 1.5 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 5.4 6.9 3.8 3.0 97.1 90.3 1.1 2.5 3.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 4.7 6.0 4.1 3.1 94.8 91.0 0.3 2.7 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 4.3 5.5 2.1 2.6 88.1 86.0 0.4 2.3 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 4.1 6.1 5.1 3.1 94.0 86.8 0.3 2.3 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 1.7 3.5 1.3 2.8 93.9 88.4 -0.8 -0.2 1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 4.6 6.8 5.2 3.0 94.6 88.7 -0.1 2.3 3.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 -0.9 0.8 -0.6 2.7 89.1 86.0 -4.3 -2.7 -1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 3.9 5.6 4.6 2.9 92.9 88.2 0.7 1.8 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 4.0 5.7 5.1 3.1 97.1 88.5 0.2 1.6 2.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 3.6 5.5 4.9 3.0 96.9 90.6 0.3 1.2 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 4.2 5.7 3.4 2.9 96.3 89.4 0.4 1.5 2.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 3.8 4.4 3.8 2.6 84.4 84.3 0.5 1.7 3.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 2.7 5.3 2.1 2.9 90.4 86.6 0.2 1.6 2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 4.4 5.3 4.1 2.5 83.4 82.7 0.2 1.8 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 3.1 4.8 3.5 3.2 94.0 89.9 -0.9 0.1 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 2.3 3.4 0.5 2.7 90.4 86.7 -4.0 -1.1 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 4.8 6.9 5.2 3.0 91.7 87.4 0.2 2.4 3.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------