***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 21.0 20.3 35.3 67.7 29.3 31.4 21.8 33.5 42.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 20.9 26.0 32.3 69.6 33.0 33.7 26.0 32.8 42.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 27.7 33.0 38.5 74.8 36.4 36.2 32.4 43.4 50.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 38.9 46.4 50.9 82.7 40.2 40.5 43.9 49.1 59.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 33.2 36.1 46.4 80.1 37.7 37.9 34.1 44.2 55.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 31.8 32.8 51.6 83.3 36.7 39.6 32.0 40.8 49.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 18.7 18.9 30.7 66.7 31.8 31.9 19.0 33.7 36.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 55.1 61.1 53.5 86.7 43.3 41.8 51.0 71.6 88.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 30.4 35.4 46.8 80.5 38.3 37.8 30.3 38.7 45.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 39.2 44.6 53.8 85.6 41.3 40.7 39.1 51.7 66.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 33.3 35.0 47.1 83.0 38.2 39.6 32.4 45.4 54.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 33.1 38.3 46.5 83.1 39.5 39.8 33.7 44.0 57.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 33.5 36.2 47.7 77.8 31.1 36.2 38.3 45.0 53.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 44.4 50.9 55.4 84.8 43.2 41.7 47.7 53.8 66.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 30.2 35.9 49.7 84.6 42.4 42.8 31.3 37.3 42.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 27.7 32.8 46.9 79.6 34.9 37.4 31.9 37.8 47.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 21.0 20.9 30.6 68.0 33.2 32.7 20.9 27.6 41.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 32.0 36.7 57.3 87.4 43.5 41.9 33.8 39.3 51.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 24.6 31.5 35.1 73.0 34.8 35.7 29.3 39.1 49.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 34.5 41.6 61.2 85.3 43.2 41.1 38.7 42.8 53.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 28.2 31.6 42.6 78.3 38.8 36.9 30.2 37.0 47.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 25.9 27.5 34.9 73.2 35.0 35.5 26.9 32.0 40.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 27.6 35.9 39.9 77.8 38.9 38.5 31.1 41.3 49.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 37.3 43.8 51.7 84.7 42.6 41.1 39.3 47.4 58.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 31.6 30.3 42.8 72.4 32.3 33.9 30.4 36.1 45.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 30.7 28.8 47.2 79.6 34.4 38.3 28.5 43.5 50.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 24.4 25.6 37.1 67.4 28.4 30.8 26.3 36.3 40.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 31.1 37.8 51.6 86.0 42.8 42.6 33.2 40.0 45.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 51.9 65.5 58.5 87.0 43.2 41.5 45.6 70.7 81.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 21.3 17.6 33.3 69.5 33.1 33.6 17.5 34.8 48.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------