***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 4.7 8.9 13.6 89.4 56.5 44.0 5.4 8.7 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.8 7.9 11.4 85.3 54.0 42.2 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.1 9.8 13.8 92.5 55.0 44.8 6.3 9.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 6.6 18.0 15.1 82.8 52.0 42.7 8.5 17.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.2 10.1 15.0 87.8 52.8 44.9 4.8 9.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.4 7.6 14.9 83.8 50.0 43.5 3.2 7.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.9 3.6 10.9 81.7 51.0 41.3 1.9 3.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 10.5 18.5 15.3 87.0 50.8 44.1 10.0 18.4 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 5.1 10.5 15.7 90.5 53.4 45.9 5.0 9.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 7.0 12.5 16.4 88.3 50.8 44.8 8.0 12.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.8 14.1 87.6 52.1 44.4 4.9 7.4 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.9 8.9 13.4 85.9 51.0 43.8 3.0 8.9 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.4 6.3 13.9 80.6 46.0 41.9 3.8 7.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 7.9 18.0 17.9 94.9 55.1 46.0 9.7 16.9 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.8 8.8 14.9 84.8 53.5 43.2 1.5 7.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.4 8.7 14.3 86.0 50.6 43.6 3.5 8.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.4 4.8 10.4 81.1 50.1 42.1 3.3 4.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 6.9 12.3 17.6 90.7 50.7 45.0 5.7 11.3 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 5.0 11.7 12.3 89.5 55.6 43.4 5.8 9.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.2 9.6 18.1 87.9 51.3 44.4 6.1 9.3 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.2 8.9 15.2 95.8 56.6 46.8 5.3 8.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.0 7.7 11.8 86.5 49.2 43.0 6.0 8.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.3 13.8 13.7 94.4 58.9 45.5 6.7 10.1 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.9 12.0 16.3 91.9 53.5 45.2 8.0 10.8 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 4.7 9.6 15.6 89.9 54.2 44.5 6.4 8.9 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.1 5.8 12.7 75.8 42.9 40.2 3.5 8.4 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 4.3 10.5 14.1 88.6 53.7 43.6 6.0 9.8 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 4.4 11.5 15.0 84.3 52.2 43.0 3.1 10.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.1 14.2 17.9 91.2 51.5 44.9 8.9 13.4 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.6 12.1 86.7 54.9 42.2 3.9 6.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------