***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 0.9 1.4 10.1 70.6 43.9 39.8 0.6 1.8 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.3 3.1 9.7 77.1 48.5 42.7 1.0 3.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.0 4.2 11.5 82.9 48.0 43.8 2.5 4.7 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 10.4 14.7 88.8 55.0 46.5 6.9 9.1 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.9 13.6 87.0 50.0 44.8 2.4 4.9 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.5 8.3 15.8 98.3 56.7 48.9 3.9 7.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.3 2.3 9.0 72.2 47.2 41.0 0.5 3.4 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.3 11.0 15.8 98.8 56.8 48.1 4.9 9.5 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.5 14.0 88.4 48.4 44.8 1.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.4 5.5 15.7 93.6 52.2 45.8 2.4 5.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 1.8 4.5 13.7 92.0 53.2 45.8 1.5 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.6 13.9 95.7 55.7 47.4 2.4 5.8 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.4 5.2 14.5 89.9 52.8 46.6 3.0 5.1 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.1 5.8 17.2 97.4 54.2 46.9 2.2 4.2 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.0 15.2 94.1 60.3 49.3 3.4 7.4 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.3 14.2 90.7 53.1 46.4 2.3 5.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 1.2 2.8 8.9 72.7 48.2 40.7 0.7 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.5 3.5 17.1 98.1 53.9 47.1 1.4 3.2 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.3 2.8 10.6 81.7 49.4 44.4 0.7 3.0 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.8 18.4 99.2 54.6 48.5 3.0 7.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.4 12.5 85.0 49.7 44.3 0.8 5.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 1.2 2.9 10.8 81.9 51.3 43.7 1.3 2.9 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.4 5.4 12.1 87.1 51.7 45.6 2.1 5.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.8 8.2 16.0 97.3 53.8 46.9 2.1 6.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.3 4.9 12.1 75.5 46.1 41.6 3.1 5.3 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.5 15.3 99.0 58.8 50.3 1.9 7.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.2 10.5 69.7 43.8 39.2 1.5 2.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.3 15.4 94.4 57.6 48.0 2.9 6.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.5 9.2 17.6 99.2 53.7 47.8 5.9 8.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.1 2.3 10.0 76.3 47.6 42.3 1.0 2.7 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------