***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.8 3.0 7.7 60.0 40.8 33.3 2.7 6.8 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 1.4 3.8 8.0 68.2 47.3 34.8 2.1 4.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.6 4.4 8.8 66.6 44.2 35.3 3.3 5.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.4 10.4 15.4 103.9 61.2 45.1 4.5 7.0 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.3 8.0 12.3 87.1 51.1 42.5 2.9 7.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.1 10.3 14.9 92.9 56.0 45.0 6.7 9.4 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 1.7 4.3 7.6 67.5 46.1 34.7 1.6 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 7.3 16.8 13.7 87.4 52.3 42.8 7.5 16.1 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.5 6.9 11.5 80.9 48.1 39.5 1.2 7.1 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.4 9.3 13.2 85.5 50.8 42.1 3.5 8.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.3 10.8 12.9 88.7 51.9 42.6 3.8 8.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 3.3 10.0 12.8 86.6 52.3 41.5 3.9 9.4 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.8 10.7 13.2 82.6 51.0 40.8 6.6 9.9 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.0 10.7 12.4 73.6 47.7 39.2 7.3 11.0 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.8 11.2 15.0 103.3 63.3 45.4 1.2 4.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.9 9.8 13.1 85.8 52.6 41.4 2.0 9.5 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 1.9 4.8 8.1 72.1 49.1 35.1 2.1 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 4.2 8.9 13.5 83.5 50.4 42.6 6.6 8.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 2.5 6.4 8.5 69.0 46.9 35.1 1.9 6.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 3.5 7.9 14.6 78.7 47.6 41.1 6.2 8.2 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 3.0 6.1 10.1 74.3 45.8 38.4 3.0 7.1 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.0 5.3 8.8 74.0 50.3 36.7 3.3 5.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 3.1 7.4 9.6 71.3 47.4 36.2 3.3 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 4.4 9.2 12.1 77.0 49.1 39.8 5.0 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.2 6.4 10.6 72.3 45.4 37.5 3.7 7.6 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.7 14.1 87.8 54.9 43.4 3.3 5.8 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.1 2.7 8.4 61.0 40.5 33.5 2.3 5.3 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.7 9.3 15.5 105.7 62.6 45.9 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 5.7 12.2 13.8 80.9 50.3 42.2 9.5 12.2 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 1.7 4.6 7.8 65.2 44.2 34.2 1.6 4.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------