***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 5.4 3.1 4.0 40.2 43.5 35.4 2.1 3.7 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.4 1.8 3.3 36.9 41.9 35.3 1.4 3.2 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.9 4.3 4.4 46.4 45.1 36.5 2.4 5.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 8.0 5.7 47.8 47.6 37.4 4.7 8.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.5 8.4 5.5 49.5 45.3 37.7 4.4 9.9 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.0 6.4 5.9 49.4 46.6 40.1 2.4 6.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.2 3.1 3.0 34.8 40.4 34.4 2.3 4.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 20.5 17.3 8.6 69.2 52.8 42.7 9.3 16.8 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.1 6.8 5.6 52.2 47.4 37.9 4.6 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.8 14.7 8.6 69.4 52.8 43.3 6.5 14.2 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.7 12.3 6.4 56.3 49.4 40.4 3.8 12.4 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.8 7.2 6.4 57.7 48.8 39.0 5.0 7.5 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.6 7.4 6.2 51.1 46.0 39.4 4.0 8.1 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.2 10.9 7.8 65.7 52.6 41.4 4.8 10.5 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.4 4.6 44.0 50.7 38.5 0.8 3.3 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.6 6.3 5.4 47.0 44.2 37.9 4.4 6.4 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.8 3.1 3.1 36.2 41.3 35.2 2.0 5.9 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.0 9.2 9.0 71.8 51.6 43.5 4.7 8.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.7 2.5 3.7 41.1 43.5 36.5 1.1 4.2 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.3 9.6 10.0 72.0 53.4 43.9 4.8 7.6 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.7 7.4 4.9 47.1 45.6 36.6 4.2 8.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.6 2.0 3.4 38.9 43.3 37.0 1.3 3.2 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 1.6 2.4 4.5 47.6 45.4 37.7 2.0 2.9 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.6 11.1 7.3 65.4 51.1 42.1 5.3 11.0 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.7 4.1 4.5 40.8 43.1 35.2 1.8 6.7 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.9 5.2 5.2 46.5 46.5 38.2 2.5 6.7 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.2 3.8 4.0 39.4 41.9 35.1 2.1 5.4 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.7 5.9 5.7 50.5 50.6 39.7 1.0 5.8 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.4 18.1 9.2 71.5 53.4 43.4 7.7 16.2 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.8 2.7 3.4 38.3 42.4 35.3 1.9 3.3 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------