***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.5 14.9 13.0 -0.2 47.1 47.1 14.5 15.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.1 12.9 -0.1 47.5 48.4 14.4 15.1 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.2 13.1 -0.4 43.4 44.8 14.7 15.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.5 7.1 9.9 -0.8 34.9 39.3 7.0 7.5 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 14.6 14.9 11.0 -0.8 35.4 38.8 14.8 16.0 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 13.2 12.9 8.4 -1.4 23.9 33.0 13.5 14.7 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.1 12.9 -0.1 48.8 48.4 14.2 15.1 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 2.2 2.4 9.1 -1.2 30.6 36.0 2.4 3.4 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.3 14.6 11.7 -0.8 37.1 39.9 14.4 15.4 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 14.6 14.1 10.1 -1.0 33.6 37.8 14.1 15.6 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 14.4 14.5 10.9 -1.0 33.1 36.8 14.5 15.7 16.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 13.5 13.0 10.0 -1.2 30.1 35.5 13.1 15.2 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 14.5 14.3 9.9 -1.1 31.3 35.6 14.3 16.0 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 14.9 11.8 -0.5 40.9 43.2 14.8 15.7 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 14.3 14.8 11.4 -0.7 39.2 40.4 14.7 15.2 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 14.9 14.6 10.3 -1.1 32.4 36.3 14.6 16.3 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.2 12.7 0.0 49.1 49.3 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 14.1 14.1 9.7 -0.8 37.8 40.5 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.2 13.1 -0.2 46.2 47.6 14.4 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.2 7.3 -0.6 41.9 43.4 8.6 10.3 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.1 12.5 -0.6 40.3 41.7 14.6 15.7 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.2 12.8 -0.1 47.8 48.8 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.2 13.1 -0.3 44.2 46.0 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.9 14.8 11.6 -0.7 39.6 41.6 14.5 15.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.1 11.4 -0.5 43.1 44.1 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 13.6 13.4 9.2 -1.1 29.4 35.2 13.5 15.0 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.2 12.3 -0.2 47.2 47.2 14.4 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 14.4 14.8 10.4 -1.0 34.0 37.7 14.8 15.7 16.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.2 9.0 -0.7 40.2 42.3 8.5 10.1 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.0 13.0 -0.2 46.8 47.9 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------