***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 17.3 16.8 15.1 0.4 55.3 55.1 14.4 16.6 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.4 15.0 0.5 57.9 56.2 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.5 15.3 0.3 54.9 54.1 14.7 17.2 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.5 12.6 0.1 50.3 51.6 7.1 10.5 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.4 17.5 13.2 -0.1 49.5 50.3 14.9 17.7 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.9 10.8 -0.5 43.7 46.6 14.3 16.8 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.4 15.0 0.5 58.8 56.1 14.7 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.4 11.6 -0.2 49.1 48.8 3.0 5.5 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.6 17.0 13.6 0.0 50.8 50.7 14.9 16.9 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.4 18.0 12.4 -0.1 50.5 49.9 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.3 13.0 -0.2 49.3 49.1 15.2 17.4 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.6 12.5 -0.3 49.0 48.3 14.2 17.0 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 15.5 16.0 11.7 -0.3 44.5 47.9 15.3 17.3 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.0 13.7 0.2 54.3 52.8 14.6 16.8 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.7 18.1 13.4 0.1 53.8 52.2 15.8 17.8 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.7 17.3 12.4 -0.3 46.7 48.6 15.5 18.0 20.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.6 14.9 0.6 59.9 56.6 14.2 16.1 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 16.8 12.1 0.0 50.7 51.0 14.4 16.7 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.1 15.2 0.5 57.5 55.8 14.5 16.5 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.4 9.4 0.2 50.8 51.7 9.4 12.3 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.3 14.5 0.1 51.4 51.9 15.2 17.0 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.4 15.0 0.6 60.4 56.4 14.7 16.3 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.3 15.3 0.4 56.6 54.7 14.7 16.5 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.0 13.6 0.1 52.8 52.0 14.4 16.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.6 13.4 0.2 53.5 53.7 15.2 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 15.0 15.2 11.5 -0.3 46.4 47.8 14.8 16.8 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.4 14.4 0.4 56.2 55.2 15.0 17.1 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 18.4 17.6 12.8 0.0 50.3 50.7 15.9 17.6 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.3 11.2 0.1 51.0 51.2 9.5 12.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.9 15.1 0.5 58.0 55.8 14.6 16.7 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------