***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.5 13.6 -0.1 52.8 49.7 15.5 17.3 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 15.5 17.5 13.5 0.0 54.6 50.7 16.1 17.4 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 15.5 17.1 13.8 -0.2 51.8 48.8 16.0 17.0 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 7.2 8.8 10.6 -0.9 41.8 44.1 7.0 9.7 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 15.2 16.3 11.5 -0.8 42.3 44.5 16.1 17.2 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 13.7 14.2 9.0 -1.3 34.4 41.3 14.2 14.9 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 15.6 17.4 13.4 0.0 53.9 50.5 15.8 17.0 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.8 9.7 -1.1 38.9 42.2 3.2 4.5 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 14.9 16.2 12.0 -0.6 44.2 45.5 15.8 16.6 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 14.8 16.4 10.6 -0.9 41.4 43.8 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 15.0 16.1 11.2 -1.0 40.4 43.1 15.7 16.7 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.9 10.7 -1.1 38.4 41.9 14.6 16.4 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 15.5 16.4 10.0 -1.0 39.2 42.2 15.6 16.8 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 15.1 17.0 12.2 -0.4 47.7 47.3 16.3 17.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 14.5 15.8 11.4 -0.9 40.7 43.6 14.8 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 15.7 16.2 10.6 -1.0 38.0 42.4 16.0 17.3 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 14.9 16.4 13.3 0.0 53.4 50.9 15.2 16.4 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 14.6 16.0 10.4 -0.7 42.9 44.8 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 15.4 17.2 13.6 0.0 53.7 50.3 15.6 17.2 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 9.1 10.9 7.6 -0.7 42.2 44.4 10.3 11.1 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 15.4 16.6 12.9 -0.4 48.4 46.9 15.9 17.0 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 15.7 17.2 13.3 0.0 52.2 50.3 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 15.9 17.7 13.7 -0.1 51.1 49.4 16.0 17.6 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 15.1 16.8 12.0 -0.5 45.9 46.3 15.9 17.4 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.3 11.8 -0.3 50.1 47.8 15.2 17.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 14.3 15.3 9.7 -1.1 36.2 41.7 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.3 12.9 -0.1 53.0 49.8 15.8 17.1 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 14.3 15.1 10.8 -1.0 38.2 42.9 14.7 16.5 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 8.6 10.6 9.5 -0.7 41.9 44.8 10.1 11.1 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 15.6 17.3 13.5 0.0 54.7 50.4 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------