***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 12.8 12.4 10.5 -2.1 29.1 32.4 12.5 15.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 12.3 12.6 10.4 -2.0 29.4 33.2 13.1 15.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 13.1 12.9 10.5 -2.4 27.3 31.3 13.8 15.5 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 4.9 4.6 6.8 -3.1 22.4 27.5 5.0 6.7 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 12.9 12.8 8.2 -3.0 22.0 27.9 13.6 15.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 11.7 10.9 5.5 -3.7 17.2 24.8 12.2 14.4 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 12.0 12.8 10.4 -1.9 30.1 33.7 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 1.1 0.5 6.1 -3.4 18.5 27.2 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 13.0 12.8 9.0 -2.9 23.5 28.3 13.3 15.5 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 13.3 12.7 7.1 -3.3 20.2 27.8 13.0 15.7 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 13.0 12.6 8.1 -3.3 20.4 27.2 12.9 15.3 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 11.9 11.6 7.1 -3.3 18.5 26.8 12.0 14.1 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 12.8 12.2 7.5 -3.1 20.5 28.4 13.0 15.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 13.5 13.1 9.0 -2.7 25.3 31.2 13.5 16.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 13.1 12.9 8.9 -2.8 24.6 28.3 13.5 14.5 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 13.0 12.5 7.5 -3.2 19.7 27.4 13.5 15.4 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 11.3 12.2 10.2 -1.9 31.0 34.1 12.3 13.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 12.7 12.0 6.7 -3.0 21.9 29.7 12.6 15.4 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 12.3 12.5 10.5 -2.1 28.7 32.8 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 7.3 6.6 4.6 -2.6 23.0 32.6 7.6 9.4 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 13.0 12.9 9.9 -2.7 24.8 29.4 13.4 15.5 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 12.3 13.1 10.3 -1.9 31.1 34.1 13.1 15.1 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 13.2 12.5 10.4 -2.3 28.1 32.0 13.5 15.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 13.1 12.8 8.8 -2.8 24.3 30.1 13.2 16.0 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 12.8 12.6 9.0 -2.4 27.1 30.8 13.2 14.5 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 12.3 11.8 6.6 -3.0 18.8 28.1 12.7 14.2 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 12.8 13.5 9.9 -2.1 29.9 32.7 13.8 15.1 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 12.9 12.8 7.4 -3.2 21.0 26.6 13.7 14.5 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 7.1 6.8 6.1 -2.8 24.4 31.6 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 12.5 12.7 10.5 -2.0 28.9 32.8 13.5 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------