***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.0 3.9 3.3 -0.7 33.4 37.0 3.9 4.1 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.2 3.7 3.2 -0.5 37.1 40.1 3.3 4.2 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.4 5.8 3.4 -0.7 34.6 37.2 5.7 6.6 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 -0.8 -1.3 0.6 -1.0 24.0 32.5 -0.6 0.7 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 1.8 2.0 1.1 -1.0 25.0 32.9 2.6 3.1 3.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 1.1 0.9 -1.5 -1.3 18.8 29.5 1.7 2.3 3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.4 3.9 3.1 -0.6 36.9 39.7 3.8 4.3 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 -4.2 -4.2 -1.2 -1.0 24.1 32.8 -4.0 -3.0 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.0 3.1 1.3 -0.8 28.3 34.3 3.4 4.1 4.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 3.0 3.0 -0.4 -0.9 26.3 33.9 3.7 4.2 4.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 2.6 2.9 0.6 -0.9 25.1 32.3 3.3 4.0 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 1.4 1.2 -0.4 -1.1 22.0 30.4 2.2 2.5 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.4 2.1 -0.7 -1.2 18.9 28.7 2.8 3.5 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.9 4.1 1.2 -0.7 32.5 37.1 4.1 4.8 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 3.2 3.3 1.8 -1.0 25.4 31.8 3.7 4.2 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 3.0 3.0 -0.1 -1.1 20.9 29.6 3.9 4.4 4.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.6 3.5 3.0 -0.5 37.1 40.1 3.3 4.5 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 1.3 1.3 -0.8 -0.7 31.6 37.5 1.4 2.1 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.3 3.6 3.2 -0.5 37.1 39.8 3.2 4.3 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 -1.7 -1.5 -2.7 -0.9 30.4 36.4 -1.3 -0.4 -0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 2.9 3.0 2.6 -0.8 30.1 34.4 3.4 4.1 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.1 3.3 3.0 -0.5 37.4 40.4 3.0 3.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.4 3.0 -0.5 37.2 39.0 3.2 3.7 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.1 3.6 1.2 -0.6 33.0 37.8 3.6 4.1 4.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.9 3.2 2.1 -0.9 29.7 35.0 3.4 4.0 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 2.1 2.1 -1.0 -1.2 20.3 29.4 2.6 3.2 3.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.8 3.8 2.8 -0.8 31.5 36.2 3.9 4.5 5.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 1.5 1.3 0.7 -1.1 21.6 30.1 2.1 2.5 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 0.0 0.4 -1.5 -0.6 34.3 39.6 0.2 1.3 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.7 4.1 3.3 -0.6 36.9 39.6 4.0 4.7 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------