***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.9 4.3 4.2 -0.4 44.1 45.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 4.7 4.1 -0.2 43.8 47.7 4.4 5.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.3 6.7 4.2 -0.4 40.3 45.6 6.6 7.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -0.2 0.4 1.4 -0.8 35.4 42.5 0.1 1.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.5 2.8 1.6 -0.7 37.5 42.7 2.5 3.7 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 1.1 0.9 -0.7 -0.9 30.4 41.5 1.4 3.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.0 4.6 4.1 -0.3 42.9 47.0 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -3.7 -3.0 -0.4 -0.6 34.4 42.7 -3.0 -2.3 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.2 1.9 -0.6 38.5 43.5 4.0 4.6 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.3 4.0 0.3 -0.6 36.3 43.0 3.8 4.5 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.4 1.0 -0.7 35.2 42.0 3.2 4.0 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 1.1 1.5 0.3 -0.7 32.2 41.6 1.6 2.5 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.1 2.1 -0.3 -0.9 29.8 40.3 2.5 3.6 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.1 4.6 2.0 -0.4 38.2 45.3 4.4 5.6 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.1 4.1 2.4 -0.8 34.4 42.8 4.0 4.9 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.3 4.0 0.4 -0.8 32.5 40.9 4.0 5.1 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.2 4.0 -0.2 45.8 47.9 4.5 5.2 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 1.1 1.7 -0.3 -0.5 37.2 44.5 1.6 2.4 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 4.5 4.1 -0.2 42.7 47.5 4.0 5.3 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -1.4 -0.8 -2.1 -0.5 37.0 44.9 -0.9 0.1 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.2 3.7 3.3 -0.5 41.0 44.5 3.5 4.0 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.1 3.9 -0.2 46.1 48.2 3.6 4.4 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.2 4.2 3.9 -0.3 39.6 46.4 3.2 4.5 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.1 3.7 1.7 -0.5 37.4 44.8 3.4 4.4 5.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.8 4.4 2.8 -0.5 42.7 44.8 3.7 4.8 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.3 2.4 -0.4 -0.8 31.0 41.3 2.6 3.7 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.2 4.8 3.7 -0.5 43.8 45.4 4.2 5.5 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.4 1.8 1.4 -0.8 33.7 41.8 1.7 3.0 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 0.5 1.5 -0.8 -0.5 38.0 45.3 1.3 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.3 4.9 4.2 -0.3 42.2 46.9 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------