***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 21.6 33.3 39.8 91.0 48.2 46.4 21.8 33.5 42.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 20.1 32.1 40.5 89.8 46.5 45.3 26.0 32.8 42.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 27.2 42.4 40.3 90.2 47.9 45.7 32.4 43.4 50.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 38.0 48.8 47.1 89.5 49.4 44.5 43.9 49.1 59.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 33.0 43.4 44.9 87.5 47.6 43.4 34.1 44.2 55.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 31.7 40.2 53.9 88.0 47.1 41.8 32.0 40.8 49.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 18.9 28.3 40.2 88.3 44.0 44.3 19.0 33.7 36.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 78.1 69.8 48.1 91.2 47.9 45.3 51.0 71.6 88.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 30.4 39.0 44.9 89.7 52.0 45.5 30.3 38.7 45.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 39.4 50.4 48.1 89.3 47.7 44.3 39.1 51.7 66.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 34.4 48.1 42.8 89.8 51.1 45.3 32.4 45.4 54.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 33.5 44.2 43.1 92.8 50.4 47.2 33.7 44.0 57.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 35.6 45.5 49.2 93.4 51.3 46.5 38.3 45.0 53.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 42.9 55.1 50.7 93.3 54.4 46.3 47.7 53.8 66.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 29.8 36.8 42.8 85.5 48.7 42.7 31.3 37.3 42.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 28.0 39.2 45.9 91.2 52.2 45.8 31.9 37.8 47.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 21.9 25.8 39.5 88.7 46.0 45.0 20.9 27.6 41.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 31.5 39.9 54.1 92.3 51.3 46.0 33.8 39.3 51.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 23.6 33.8 40.9 91.8 48.4 46.2 29.3 39.1 49.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 47.5 44.4 61.0 93.7 52.7 46.7 38.7 42.8 53.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 27.6 36.9 41.8 91.2 49.4 47.3 30.2 37.0 47.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 26.1 32.5 41.7 93.9 51.7 47.5 26.9 32.0 40.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 27.1 41.5 42.3 93.5 50.2 46.8 31.1 41.3 49.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 37.1 48.5 48.7 92.0 51.1 46.2 39.3 47.4 58.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 31.2 32.4 46.0 86.8 43.1 42.6 30.4 36.1 45.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 31.6 45.8 48.7 95.3 51.5 48.6 28.5 43.5 50.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 24.8 33.9 44.6 89.5 44.7 44.4 26.3 36.3 40.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 30.8 39.8 45.0 87.7 49.1 43.7 33.2 40.0 45.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 51.6 72.7 57.6 94.0 52.6 46.8 45.6 70.7 81.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 19.3 31.5 40.3 89.9 44.9 45.3 17.5 34.8 48.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------