***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 4.4 10.2 9.5 95.2 61.6 44.1 5.4 8.7 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.7 9.8 9.8 96.2 60.6 44.6 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 4.2 9.7 9.2 87.0 54.5 42.5 6.3 9.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.9 17.4 9.5 74.2 50.6 40.4 8.5 17.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 5.0 9.8 9.6 74.2 50.5 40.3 4.8 9.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.6 8.8 12.9 80.3 53.6 43.3 3.2 7.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.3 9.7 94.0 57.2 43.6 1.9 3.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 10.0 18.2 9.7 75.6 48.6 41.7 10.0 18.4 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 5.0 9.3 10.0 77.9 49.8 40.5 5.0 9.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 6.7 10.9 10.3 75.6 47.5 40.5 8.0 12.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.6 7.4 8.3 69.0 50.2 40.5 4.9 7.4 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.8 8.9 8.3 73.7 50.0 42.5 3.0 8.9 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.8 8.3 10.6 79.4 51.8 43.9 3.8 7.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 6.8 17.7 11.8 85.9 54.2 41.4 9.7 16.9 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.8 8.2 72.0 53.5 41.4 1.5 7.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.7 8.7 9.2 71.7 50.5 41.9 3.5 8.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.4 9.1 9.7 97.6 59.8 44.6 3.3 4.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 6.7 8.7 12.0 80.1 47.8 41.6 5.7 11.3 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 4.9 12.3 9.7 95.1 60.2 44.4 5.8 9.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.4 9.3 13.2 85.7 49.9 44.6 6.1 9.3 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 3.3 8.7 9.5 84.8 54.9 42.3 5.3 8.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.0 13.2 9.7 100.2 62.2 45.4 6.0 8.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 4.5 12.8 9.8 89.3 57.0 42.7 6.7 10.1 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 4.9 10.5 10.8 79.9 49.1 40.3 8.0 10.8 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.7 9.7 10.9 86.9 54.6 42.2 6.4 8.9 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.8 10.1 10.7 86.1 55.3 46.4 3.5 8.4 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 3.9 10.8 10.8 93.9 57.7 43.3 6.0 9.8 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.6 11.4 8.9 71.3 51.8 40.8 3.1 10.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 8.8 12.4 12.4 81.4 47.1 42.1 8.9 13.4 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.7 8.9 9.6 94.8 58.9 44.3 3.9 6.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------