***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 0.9 6.6 12.7 119.0 68.5 55.7 0.6 1.8 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.4 7.6 12.4 103.1 62.7 51.7 1.0 3.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.1 10.9 12.9 120.3 70.3 55.8 2.5 4.7 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 15.7 14.4 118.2 67.1 55.1 6.9 9.1 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 7.2 9.0 14.6 119.5 69.4 56.2 2.4 4.9 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.8 9.9 16.3 104.0 64.4 52.0 3.9 7.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.3 4.7 12.4 102.1 62.0 51.1 0.5 3.4 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.8 16.5 15.7 121.2 69.6 58.6 4.9 9.5 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.2 7.6 14.3 118.9 70.9 56.2 1.5 4.7 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.5 12.7 15.8 120.8 69.3 58.2 2.4 5.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.7 6.8 13.7 119.4 69.8 57.9 1.5 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 10.8 11.5 13.7 122.0 70.1 58.1 2.4 5.8 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.9 11.6 15.2 117.3 70.5 55.2 3.0 5.1 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 14.5 12.6 16.8 131.4 71.3 59.5 2.2 4.2 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.8 12.7 110.1 66.3 52.5 3.4 7.4 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.0 8.7 14.2 116.2 68.6 55.7 2.3 5.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.2 4.0 11.9 96.9 59.6 49.6 0.7 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.0 7.7 18.1 125.4 69.0 59.5 1.4 3.2 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.3 7.4 12.4 108.8 64.4 53.1 0.7 3.0 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.5 20.1 120.9 64.2 57.6 3.0 7.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.4 11.9 13.0 118.4 71.1 55.5 0.8 5.4 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.2 4.7 12.4 102.7 61.8 51.4 1.3 2.9 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.3 9.1 12.9 120.6 68.5 56.1 2.1 5.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.2 11.6 16.2 129.3 71.3 59.7 2.1 6.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.1 7.3 14.2 110.8 65.4 53.6 3.1 5.3 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.8 11.4 14.6 119.1 71.3 57.6 1.9 7.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.1 6.2 13.9 112.1 64.4 54.2 1.5 2.8 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.6 9.9 13.7 115.0 66.5 53.9 2.9 6.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 16.3 19.3 126.1 69.0 59.7 5.9 8.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.1 5.8 12.6 108.5 65.8 53.0 1.0 2.7 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------