***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 8.6 9.5 12.7 116.0 62.9 56.2 2.7 6.8 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 5.6 9.7 13.7 118.7 62.7 56.9 2.1 4.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 6.7 8.0 13.1 118.8 65.6 56.3 3.3 5.4 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.8 12.3 15.8 128.4 67.8 60.3 4.5 7.0 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.8 12.5 14.9 124.9 68.8 59.3 2.9 7.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.4 15.7 18.7 126.5 68.1 60.5 6.7 9.4 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 5.9 7.8 13.6 115.9 62.7 56.9 1.6 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 24.2 27.8 15.9 132.3 72.6 61.8 7.5 16.1 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.3 11.6 14.6 124.5 67.9 59.1 1.2 7.1 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.3 14.6 15.5 124.3 68.2 59.2 3.5 8.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 15.8 14.8 14.5 136.2 69.9 61.7 3.8 8.6 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 16.6 18.4 14.8 143.0 75.2 64.1 3.9 9.4 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 17.7 20.6 17.1 140.6 73.7 64.8 6.6 9.9 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.8 18.5 17.1 128.1 65.1 57.0 7.3 11.0 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.2 11.9 15.5 125.4 68.3 59.3 1.2 4.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 13.6 13.6 16.2 141.7 73.2 63.3 2.0 9.5 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.7 8.0 13.6 117.6 66.1 57.7 2.1 4.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.8 11.3 17.2 123.8 69.7 58.6 6.6 8.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.4 11.2 14.0 123.7 65.1 57.5 1.9 6.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 15.8 16.6 20.3 129.1 71.8 60.9 6.2 8.2 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.5 9.0 13.1 120.4 65.9 58.4 3.0 7.1 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.9 11.2 14.7 127.4 68.4 59.9 3.3 5.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.5 14.7 128.9 66.9 57.9 3.3 8.9 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.4 13.2 15.8 123.0 66.8 57.3 5.0 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.1 11.0 15.2 116.0 65.4 58.0 3.7 7.6 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 11.7 13.9 16.9 141.1 77.1 64.9 3.3 5.8 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.1 9.6 14.6 115.8 64.5 57.3 2.3 5.3 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.5 10.7 15.9 131.0 69.3 60.1 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.6 20.2 18.6 128.3 71.2 59.5 9.5 12.2 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.1 7.8 13.5 118.1 64.0 56.6 1.6 4.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------