***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 1.3 1.6 4.9 40.4 31.2 28.4 2.1 3.7 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 1.1 1.1 4.6 40.3 29.7 29.0 1.4 3.2 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 2.3 2.2 5.0 40.7 29.7 27.3 2.4 5.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 6.7 7.4 48.4 38.8 33.2 4.7 8.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 4.2 3.5 5.9 41.2 28.3 26.7 4.4 9.9 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.4 2.3 6.1 41.2 29.0 26.1 2.4 6.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 1.6 1.8 4.5 39.9 31.5 29.5 2.3 4.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 8.4 8.2 6.7 45.4 31.0 29.4 9.3 16.8 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.8 3.9 6.0 44.8 29.7 28.5 4.6 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 5.9 5.1 6.5 44.1 28.5 27.8 6.5 14.2 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 5.2 3.7 6.3 46.6 31.7 29.9 3.8 12.4 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.2 5.0 6.2 46.1 33.0 30.5 5.0 7.5 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.4 3.2 6.3 44.3 30.9 28.4 4.0 8.1 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 4.9 3.0 5.0 34.4 25.2 22.2 4.8 10.5 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.3 2.3 6.4 43.5 42.5 32.8 0.8 3.3 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.0 4.3 6.3 45.6 32.3 28.8 4.4 6.4 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 1.7 2.0 4.3 39.9 31.7 27.5 2.0 5.9 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 4.2 3.4 6.9 44.8 27.8 26.9 4.7 8.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 1.6 1.0 4.7 41.1 30.7 28.6 1.1 4.2 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 3.7 3.9 7.5 43.0 27.6 26.7 4.8 7.6 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.8 5.0 6.2 48.6 35.4 31.5 4.2 8.2 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 1.1 1.3 5.0 44.6 33.5 29.8 1.3 3.2 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 1.2 1.9 4.9 40.0 30.2 27.0 2.0 2.9 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 5.2 4.7 5.9 41.8 28.3 25.9 5.3 11.0 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 2.4 1.6 5.7 39.4 30.0 26.0 1.8 6.7 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.9 2.5 6.6 45.5 33.1 29.8 2.5 6.7 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 2.0 1.7 5.4 40.1 29.8 27.3 2.1 5.4 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.1 3.2 6.5 44.0 38.2 30.9 1.0 5.8 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 7.9 6.2 7.3 45.1 28.0 27.3 7.7 16.2 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.2 1.3 4.6 39.3 29.2 28.6 1.9 3.3 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------