***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.2 14.7 0.9 68.9 65.5 14.5 15.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 15.9 16.1 14.6 0.9 70.3 65.6 14.4 15.1 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 16.4 16.5 14.8 0.8 68.0 64.0 14.7 15.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 7.9 8.4 12.6 0.6 61.3 60.1 7.0 7.5 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.8 13.1 0.7 63.1 60.2 14.8 16.0 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.4 11.2 0.6 62.1 59.6 13.5 14.7 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.9 14.6 1.0 73.1 66.7 14.2 15.1 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 3.9 4.3 11.5 0.5 60.1 57.5 2.4 3.4 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.5 13.8 0.7 65.2 61.2 14.4 15.4 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.4 12.4 0.6 61.1 58.4 14.1 15.6 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.6 12.8 0.7 62.6 60.1 14.5 15.7 16.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.8 12.4 0.6 62.7 59.2 13.1 15.2 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 16.3 17.1 12.2 0.8 65.3 62.0 14.3 16.0 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.3 13.7 0.8 65.3 61.8 14.8 15.7 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.7 13.2 0.7 61.6 62.0 14.7 15.2 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 16.6 17.3 12.6 0.8 64.3 61.6 14.6 16.3 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.1 14.4 0.9 73.2 66.2 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.6 11.6 0.4 56.4 56.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 16.0 16.2 14.7 0.9 69.0 64.8 14.4 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.4 9.0 0.2 51.3 52.5 8.6 10.3 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.7 14.4 0.8 67.0 62.7 14.6 15.7 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 15.9 16.0 14.5 0.8 70.7 64.5 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 16.3 16.5 14.7 0.8 67.9 63.7 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.3 13.5 0.7 63.2 60.3 14.5 15.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 16.2 16.4 13.4 0.9 68.0 65.1 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.7 11.6 0.7 61.1 60.5 13.5 15.0 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 16.2 16.7 14.1 1.0 70.9 66.4 14.4 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.9 12.9 0.6 60.7 60.0 14.8 15.7 16.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.3 10.5 0.3 53.6 54.6 8.5 10.1 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 15.9 16.2 14.8 0.9 70.3 65.5 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------