***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 18.6 19.0 16.8 1.3 70.0 63.3 14.4 16.6 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 18.8 18.4 16.6 1.2 68.5 62.1 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 19.0 18.8 16.9 1.3 68.2 62.5 14.7 17.2 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.3 13.7 15.3 1.3 70.0 63.0 7.1 10.5 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.4 20.4 15.6 1.4 70.9 62.7 14.9 17.7 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 17.5 18.8 13.9 1.6 68.2 63.7 14.3 16.8 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 18.3 18.4 16.6 1.3 69.9 62.7 14.7 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.1 7.4 14.3 1.5 65.8 62.5 3.0 5.5 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 18.8 19.7 16.0 1.4 71.4 62.1 14.9 16.9 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.3 19.6 15.0 1.5 68.1 62.2 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 18.1 20.0 15.2 1.5 70.0 63.0 15.2 17.4 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 17.6 19.1 15.0 1.5 66.1 63.1 14.2 17.0 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 17.9 20.0 14.6 1.6 68.6 63.6 15.3 17.3 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.6 18.1 15.8 1.3 64.4 60.7 14.6 16.8 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 19.4 19.5 15.5 1.2 68.3 63.3 15.8 17.8 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 18.6 20.7 15.0 1.5 68.5 63.5 15.5 18.0 20.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.3 16.4 1.2 67.6 61.8 14.2 16.1 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 18.9 14.4 1.4 67.4 61.4 14.4 16.7 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 18.5 18.3 16.8 1.2 67.9 61.9 14.5 16.5 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.9 14.5 12.1 1.4 64.1 60.7 9.4 12.3 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 19.0 19.5 16.6 1.4 70.3 62.3 15.2 17.0 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 14.8 17.6 16.5 1.1 66.1 61.0 14.7 16.3 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 17.5 18.6 16.7 1.2 66.6 61.7 14.7 16.5 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.6 18.5 15.8 1.4 67.3 61.6 14.4 16.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 19.3 19.5 15.5 1.4 70.5 63.6 15.2 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 17.4 19.8 14.2 1.5 67.8 63.7 14.8 16.8 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 18.9 19.3 16.2 1.4 70.2 63.8 15.0 17.1 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 18.3 20.3 15.5 1.3 67.6 62.9 15.9 17.6 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.6 13.3 1.4 66.6 60.8 9.5 12.1 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 18.4 18.7 16.8 1.3 69.4 62.6 14.6 16.7 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------