***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 17.7 17.6 15.2 0.4 55.6 56.1 15.5 17.3 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 18.0 17.5 14.9 0.3 58.0 55.9 16.1 17.4 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.5 18.0 15.2 0.3 55.7 55.9 16.0 17.0 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.2 13.6 0.3 55.2 55.0 7.0 9.7 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.9 13.8 0.3 54.3 55.0 16.1 17.2 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.6 16.4 12.1 0.3 54.8 54.0 14.2 14.9 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 17.7 17.4 14.9 0.4 57.6 56.2 15.8 17.0 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.7 12.1 0.0 51.5 52.8 3.2 4.5 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.4 14.2 0.2 54.4 55.2 15.8 16.6 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 17.6 17.1 13.0 0.1 51.7 53.4 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.2 13.4 0.2 53.7 54.2 15.7 16.7 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 16.9 16.5 13.0 0.1 52.6 53.1 14.6 16.4 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.0 12.6 0.2 53.1 53.1 15.6 16.8 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.1 14.0 0.1 49.7 53.8 16.3 17.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.8 13.9 0.4 54.8 55.3 14.8 16.6 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.5 13.1 0.2 52.8 53.8 16.0 17.3 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.8 14.7 0.4 58.6 55.9 15.2 16.4 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.4 12.2 -0.1 48.7 52.2 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.4 17.3 15.1 0.3 57.3 55.6 15.6 17.2 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.0 9.6 -0.2 48.2 50.7 10.3 11.1 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.5 14.9 0.3 54.9 55.8 15.9 17.0 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 17.5 17.6 14.8 0.3 58.5 55.2 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 18.0 17.8 15.1 0.3 53.9 55.1 16.0 17.6 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.4 13.9 0.1 50.0 53.9 15.9 17.4 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 15.6 17.6 13.9 0.4 54.8 56.1 15.2 17.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.3 12.2 0.2 55.6 53.1 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.6 14.5 0.4 56.2 56.5 15.8 17.1 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.6 13.8 0.3 53.2 54.5 14.7 16.5 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.0 11.1 -0.1 48.0 51.6 10.1 11.1 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 15.6 17.5 15.1 0.3 57.6 56.1 15.8 17.2 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------