***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.8 14.0 0.8 58.5 58.3 12.5 15.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.8 13.8 0.7 62.7 57.8 13.1 15.1 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.3 14.1 0.7 59.8 57.2 13.8 15.5 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 7.3 8.9 12.4 1.0 63.1 58.9 5.0 6.7 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 16.0 17.3 12.6 0.9 58.1 57.4 13.6 15.6 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 14.9 16.7 11.2 1.4 62.9 61.4 12.2 14.4 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 15.0 15.7 13.8 0.8 61.1 58.4 13.1 14.6 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 3.5 3.3 10.7 0.3 51.9 52.2 1.4 2.9 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.7 13.0 0.8 56.7 56.9 13.3 15.5 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 16.2 15.8 11.6 0.4 53.1 53.4 13.0 15.7 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 15.8 17.0 12.2 0.8 56.4 56.3 12.9 15.3 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 14.7 15.1 11.8 0.6 53.7 54.6 12.0 14.1 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 15.8 16.9 11.5 1.0 56.9 57.9 13.0 15.3 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.6 12.7 0.3 56.7 53.8 13.5 16.1 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 14.9 15.8 12.6 1.0 64.8 60.1 13.5 14.5 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 16.0 17.8 12.1 1.0 58.9 58.1 13.5 15.4 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 14.1 15.1 13.5 0.6 61.7 57.3 12.3 13.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.5 10.6 0.0 51.1 50.6 12.6 15.4 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.3 16.2 13.9 0.6 62.0 57.2 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.0 8.4 7.7 -0.5 46.5 46.2 7.6 9.4 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.9 13.7 0.8 58.3 57.5 13.4 15.5 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.9 13.5 0.5 61.7 55.9 13.1 15.1 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.2 13.9 0.6 60.1 56.0 13.5 15.4 16.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.2 12.6 0.4 56.2 54.0 13.2 16.0 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 15.0 16.4 12.6 0.9 60.6 58.9 13.2 14.5 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 14.7 15.4 11.0 0.8 55.3 56.9 12.7 14.2 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.8 13.3 0.9 59.8 59.0 13.8 15.1 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 15.1 16.6 12.6 1.0 63.8 59.4 13.7 14.5 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.4 9.5 -0.1 51.3 49.7 7.6 9.9 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.6 14.0 0.7 61.2 57.9 13.5 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------