***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 13.0 14.0 12.9 1.1 61.0 62.4 8.8 12.6 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 12.7 13.8 13.1 1.3 63.7 64.6 9.6 12.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 13.8 14.2 13.1 1.0 60.1 60.9 8.9 13.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 6.2 5.9 9.2 -0.1 50.5 48.8 0.3 5.9 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 13.7 13.5 10.4 0.1 51.0 50.7 8.8 13.4 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 13.1 11.2 7.4 -0.8 42.2 43.1 7.2 12.8 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 47 53 100 13.9 14.0 13.1 1.5 65.0 66.4 9.4 12.1 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 95 5 100 1.0 0.8 8.9 0.2 50.7 51.5 -1.3 0.8 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 93 7 100 13.7 13.5 11.9 0.6 54.9 55.1 8.6 13.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 94 6 100 13.4 13.4 10.2 0.4 51.9 52.9 8.2 13.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 96 4 100 13.5 13.4 10.5 0.3 50.9 51.9 8.9 13.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 95 5 100 12.8 12.6 9.7 0.3 49.9 51.8 7.3 12.6 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 13.6 13.5 10.0 0.5 53.2 54.1 8.8 13.4 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 14.3 14.2 12.5 1.3 58.9 61.3 9.9 13.8 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 13.4 13.2 11.0 0.2 51.7 51.5 9.1 13.1 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 95 5 100 14.3 14.1 10.2 0.4 51.6 52.6 8.9 14.1 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 13.1 13.5 12.9 1.5 66.6 67.1 9.2 10.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 13.2 12.9 9.3 0.2 50.4 51.4 8.6 12.9 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 13.2 14.0 13.2 1.3 62.2 63.2 9.4 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 95 5 100 7.6 7.5 6.7 0.0 51.1 50.9 3.9 7.3 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 13.5 13.6 12.6 0.8 57.7 57.7 8.8 13.1 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 12.7 14.6 13.1 1.4 65.1 66.0 9.7 12.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 13.7 14.1 13.2 1.2 59.6 61.8 9.6 13.1 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 13.5 13.8 11.7 0.8 55.5 56.8 9.5 13.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 13.1 13.9 11.5 0.9 60.4 60.2 8.6 12.6 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 96 4 100 12.4 12.4 8.8 0.2 52.9 52.2 8.5 12.3 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 13.1 13.9 12.4 1.2 63.3 63.9 9.0 12.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 14.1 13.7 9.9 -0.2 48.7 47.5 8.6 13.7 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 7.6 7.3 8.2 0.0 51.4 50.8 3.5 7.3 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 12.8 14.6 13.1 1.3 62.7 64.0 9.1 12.3 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------