***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2015.-29.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 5.2 5.3 4.8 1.3 70.1 65.5 2.8 4.4 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 4.5 4.8 4.5 1.2 70.7 64.6 2.6 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 7.1 7.0 4.3 1.1 69.8 64.3 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.1 0.7 1.8 0.9 63.0 62.9 -1.9 -0.4 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 4.6 4.1 2.0 1.0 64.8 63.5 1.8 3.2 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 3.5 3.5 0.3 1.0 66.0 65.5 1.3 2.1 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 4.9 5.0 4.6 1.3 71.7 65.5 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -3.0 -3.4 0.2 0.6 54.1 58.1 -4.3 -3.6 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 5.3 5.1 2.8 1.1 68.6 64.5 2.6 4.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.7 0.8 0.6 56.7 58.4 2.4 4.2 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.5 1.6 0.8 62.9 62.3 2.3 3.8 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 3.3 3.2 1.3 0.8 62.0 62.2 1.4 2.0 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 4.9 4.7 0.9 0.9 66.3 64.1 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 4.2 4.6 2.5 0.7 62.3 58.7 2.9 3.8 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.9 2.4 1.0 66.9 64.9 3.1 3.8 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 5.4 5.4 1.3 0.9 65.1 63.3 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 4.4 4.7 4.4 1.2 71.8 64.2 3.0 3.6 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 1.9 1.7 -0.1 0.3 50.4 53.8 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 4.6 4.7 4.3 1.1 69.6 63.6 2.7 3.5 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -0.6 -1.6 -2.2 0.2 46.2 50.7 -2.4 -1.0 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 5.3 5.0 3.8 1.2 69.0 64.8 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 4.3 4.4 4.3 1.1 72.2 63.1 2.3 3.3 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 4.3 3.8 3.9 0.9 67.6 62.0 2.2 3.2 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.4 2.2 0.7 61.7 58.9 2.0 3.6 4.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 5.0 5.0 2.8 1.1 66.6 64.5 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 3.5 4.2 1.0 0.9 62.6 63.6 1.9 3.1 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 5.5 5.6 3.9 1.3 69.2 65.5 3.4 4.6 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 2.8 3.4 2.0 0.9 64.5 63.1 1.6 2.5 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 1.0 0.4 -0.8 0.4 49.9 54.2 -0.4 0.4 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 5.4 5.4 4.6 1.2 70.1 64.9 3.0 3.7 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------