***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.03.2015.-22.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 1.5 1.7 2.7 0.5 56.3 57.2 -0.1 1.3 2.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 1.7 2.2 2.8 0.7 60.1 61.3 0.0 1.5 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 3.8 5.3 2.6 0.5 59.6 58.3 2.1 3.6 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -1.1 -2.9 -0.8 -0.7 41.7 41.2 -5.4 -1.8 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 1.0 -0.6 -0.8 -1.3 31.7 31.8 -0.4 0.5 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -1.0 -0.9 -2.6 -1.1 32.3 32.9 -0.9 -0.1 0.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 2.0 2.3 2.3 0.2 53.6 53.6 -0.1 1.8 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -7.7 -7.4 -2.1 -0.8 38.2 37.9 -7.9 -5.8 -3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 2.3 0.8 0.1 -0.8 38.5 37.8 0.6 1.9 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 0.7 0.4 -1.4 -0.8 35.3 36.3 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 1.6 0.3 -0.9 -1.0 36.9 36.7 0.0 1.0 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 0.6 -0.8 -1.5 -0.9 36.8 35.6 -1.1 0.0 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 -0.1 0.0 -1.7 -1.1 33.0 31.7 0.0 1.2 2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 2.8 1.3 0.1 -0.6 39.7 39.6 1.2 2.3 3.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 2.4 2.0 0.8 -0.5 47.6 45.9 0.3 2.1 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 0.8 0.7 -1.3 -1.1 32.7 32.4 0.7 2.2 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 2.3 2.4 2.3 0.3 56.0 56.5 0.3 2.1 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 -1.8 -1.9 -3.0 -1.7 20.8 23.0 -1.0 -0.2 0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 1.8 3.0 2.8 0.8 62.7 63.7 0.0 1.5 3.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 -4.2 -4.6 -4.7 -1.6 26.3 28.3 -4.0 -2.9 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 2.0 1.6 1.6 -0.3 46.6 46.1 0.2 1.8 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 1.1 2.0 2.6 0.5 57.9 59.1 0.3 0.9 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 1.1 2.5 2.5 0.7 64.5 63.1 0.2 0.8 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 0.3 0.7 -0.2 -0.8 37.9 37.8 0.5 1.1 2.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 1.3 1.5 1.7 0.5 56.3 57.1 0.1 1.2 2.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 -0.3 -0.4 -2.6 -1.9 19.3 21.3 0.4 1.3 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 2.2 1.9 1.8 0.1 51.2 52.2 0.0 1.9 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -1.0 38.1 36.4 -1.2 0.1 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 91 9 0 100 -4.5 -4.8 -4.7 -2.7 12.8 15.6 -3.5 -1.4 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 2.1 2.9 2.9 0.7 60.8 61.2 0.0 2.0 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------