***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 40.5 42.9 56.8 122.0 68.2 64.6 23.0 30.4 40.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 36.0 38.8 48.8 114.9 63.4 57.9 24.4 32.8 41.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 54.2 62.6 58.7 126.2 72.7 66.7 25.4 37.7 48.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 48.0 52.2 65.9 119.1 68.0 62.3 38.3 45.4 51.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 53.5 60.3 66.8 127.7 73.1 68.2 36.0 43.5 49.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 41.1 45.4 67.0 115.9 68.0 61.0 29.0 37.5 44.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 31.7 35.4 47.8 114.3 61.7 57.7 18.1 28.3 36.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 70.5 86.5 68.3 118.4 70.3 63.5 50.6 65.3 83.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 45.8 51.4 67.7 128.2 75.0 68.6 30.0 35.2 43.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 64.7 66.0 71.7 122.4 72.4 66.2 35.8 53.0 65.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 55.4 59.4 63.7 123.8 73.2 66.3 31.9 45.3 55.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 46.0 58.7 61.2 119.7 71.6 63.7 32.5 42.0 54.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 52.7 56.0 68.8 123.3 74.4 67.3 33.7 42.4 49.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 52.7 64.1 73.2 118.3 66.3 63.7 41.0 48.9 63.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 36.2 36.5 59.6 113.9 61.6 56.9 24.4 32.7 40.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 47.1 46.5 64.6 121.6 72.4 65.3 31.1 36.9 44.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.8 45.9 110.2 59.0 54.3 20.1 24.5 34.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 50.3 51.8 74.9 121.0 72.9 66.2 33.7 43.1 49.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 41.1 47.7 51.0 115.5 63.5 59.0 24.5 35.6 48.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 45.7 55.2 81.9 120.3 71.2 65.0 37.1 42.7 54.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 44.3 50.5 64.4 130.5 75.1 69.9 29.4 34.9 46.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 35.0 32.3 47.7 106.3 54.5 53.3 24.7 30.1 39.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 40.2 44.3 55.2 116.4 62.9 60.4 26.9 37.0 46.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 59.5 58.8 69.6 122.9 71.5 66.1 30.6 44.0 56.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 46 54 100 44.4 48.1 67.7 126.8 73.0 68.3 28.8 30.7 41.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 41.6 48.8 64.4 116.9 65.7 62.1 31.0 38.9 48.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 37.4 38.7 60.7 121.5 68.5 64.9 25.9 34.3 38.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 36.2 41.7 62.2 115.0 64.7 59.1 29.4 33.6 42.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 84.0 89.4 77.0 120.3 71.8 65.5 46.8 68.5 79.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 36.4 47.0 51.1 117.6 65.5 60.4 13.7 32.5 47.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------