***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.2 15.6 128.2 72.3 57.8 4.2 7.6 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.9 11.0 14.7 131.6 71.1 56.3 3.0 7.0 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.3 11.0 15.8 129.0 72.0 58.2 4.4 6.7 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.7 20.4 17.8 121.7 66.2 53.2 8.4 17.0 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.0 15.8 17.2 125.0 67.9 54.8 4.3 7.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.6 10.2 17.1 108.9 59.9 52.5 2.5 7.7 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.2 12.0 14.3 130.3 69.5 56.1 1.6 4.3 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 20.0 19.7 17.0 111.8 63.7 53.1 9.4 16.5 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.9 17.3 18.3 129.4 71.5 56.7 4.1 7.1 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.0 17.4 18.6 116.9 66.7 54.1 6.2 11.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.2 11.9 15.4 116.1 65.3 53.3 2.9 6.6 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.0 10.0 15.1 114.2 63.4 53.7 1.5 6.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.8 7.8 16.1 108.3 56.8 51.3 2.8 5.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.6 17.1 20.4 119.8 66.5 56.7 7.2 12.3 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.9 17.0 119.3 67.2 52.6 2.8 7.2 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.1 15.5 110.1 60.2 51.3 2.9 7.4 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.4 14.2 127.6 70.6 53.4 2.9 3.9 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.6 13.1 19.9 115.3 65.3 54.3 4.9 7.8 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 18.0 15.4 132.1 72.5 57.6 3.9 6.1 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 10.7 20.7 113.6 65.3 53.3 4.8 8.8 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.9 13.7 16.9 130.6 72.0 57.9 4.4 6.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.5 12.1 15.1 125.4 70.3 54.9 4.3 6.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.9 16.6 16.5 131.4 74.0 58.8 4.3 8.5 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.4 10.6 18.7 121.4 69.3 56.5 5.4 9.1 10.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.8 13.5 18.0 129.0 69.9 57.0 5.7 7.4 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.3 15.4 106.8 59.6 51.7 1.6 5.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.0 13.1 16.6 127.8 71.2 57.9 3.4 9.0 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.6 12.8 16.8 113.8 63.4 51.6 3.5 8.8 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.9 15.7 20.2 114.9 64.3 54.1 9.8 11.7 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.0 8.9 15.0 132.8 70.5 57.9 3.3 6.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------