***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.6 14.3 114.0 64.4 55.2 1.3 3.9 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.1 6.1 12.4 105.4 59.7 52.8 0.9 3.3 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.1 14.4 114.8 67.0 54.9 1.3 5.1 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.8 13.3 16.1 109.7 63.5 52.3 5.8 10.1 14.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.0 8.8 16.0 110.2 65.0 53.5 2.6 5.9 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.4 7.5 16.2 99.8 57.4 47.2 3.7 5.9 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.3 11.9 101.5 57.9 52.3 1.0 2.0 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 4.9 14.9 16.4 106.2 62.6 51.9 5.4 9.7 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.0 5.4 17.0 112.4 67.2 54.5 1.1 4.3 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.8 7.9 17.5 107.2 64.1 52.4 2.3 5.7 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.4 6.6 15.2 109.8 65.7 53.0 2.5 4.6 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.5 8.1 14.8 107.9 63.3 52.3 3.4 5.4 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.5 5.6 15.7 100.8 57.4 49.0 3.1 4.9 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 7.3 3.9 17.4 101.4 60.8 52.4 1.4 2.9 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.4 12.2 15.9 114.1 65.1 52.9 2.7 6.1 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.8 7.3 15.2 103.7 60.6 50.5 3.3 5.8 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.0 3.3 12.1 104.6 61.0 52.7 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.4 6.5 18.3 104.9 61.7 51.7 1.0 3.2 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 3.5 6.1 12.9 105.9 60.6 52.7 1.0 2.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.1 19.9 106.6 59.9 51.7 3.5 7.8 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.7 8.6 15.6 115.7 67.5 55.6 1.6 5.7 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.3 13.3 105.9 59.6 52.5 1.0 2.9 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 5.3 6.7 13.7 104.8 63.8 52.3 1.6 3.8 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 1.9 9.7 17.0 107.3 65.9 52.8 2.0 4.3 9.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.6 16.0 112.7 62.1 54.3 3.6 6.2 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.6 8.0 15.0 99.2 56.9 49.0 1.7 5.4 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.7 14.9 111.1 61.5 54.5 1.2 2.8 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.7 15.6 108.0 63.3 51.2 4.0 6.1 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 3.8 9.5 18.7 105.0 60.3 51.8 4.9 7.7 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.8 5.0 13.0 107.9 62.1 53.8 0.6 3.1 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------