***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.5 12.2 11.0 89.9 57.2 48.6 2.1 8.0 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.9 9.5 89.4 56.4 48.5 2.4 4.5 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.2 9.1 12.5 101.2 61.4 52.4 3.2 5.3 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.1 7.8 14.3 95.3 57.6 50.5 2.8 6.2 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.7 13.3 93.4 56.2 49.0 3.9 7.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.0 14.8 90.8 54.9 47.3 1.8 9.5 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.5 9.5 92.0 56.7 48.9 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.0 21.0 14.6 94.0 56.5 48.6 9.7 18.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.6 9.2 13.9 97.9 59.0 50.1 4.2 7.4 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.5 14.2 93.5 57.0 48.0 4.9 12.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.6 12.3 13.9 95.2 56.8 49.6 2.4 10.7 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.7 14.5 99.7 59.8 51.2 5.5 9.5 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.1 16.8 15.4 97.4 58.8 50.4 4.4 10.8 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 19.2 18.2 14.5 92.2 57.3 49.6 7.9 15.9 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.1 13.3 90.8 58.7 50.0 0.9 3.1 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.1 14.8 98.3 59.8 51.1 3.7 9.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.7 7.4 8.8 84.4 53.9 45.8 2.9 6.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.8 14.5 93.1 57.1 47.7 6.6 11.6 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.1 12.3 9.9 88.3 56.7 48.2 1.7 7.7 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.4 17.2 92.5 55.3 48.8 5.2 8.9 17.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.2 13.4 100.3 61.5 51.4 4.3 7.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.0 8.9 78.5 53.4 44.3 4.0 8.4 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.0 11.6 11.3 91.9 58.7 49.7 4.0 9.4 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.9 16.0 14.1 96.1 60.0 49.6 9.0 11.9 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.6 8.7 14.0 97.0 58.1 51.2 4.1 7.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.4 15.0 94.5 55.6 49.4 2.3 6.4 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.4 12.6 94.1 57.6 50.2 2.7 6.0 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.5 4.4 13.7 91.3 56.9 49.1 0.5 3.3 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.7 15.7 94.5 56.9 49.1 8.7 13.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.1 6.4 10.1 92.1 58.0 49.4 1.8 4.8 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------