***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 6.4 9.1 15.8 165.4 80.7 74.5 1.1 3.4 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 47 53 100 7.2 10.3 12.2 136.7 73.7 66.7 1.1 2.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 11.7 16.6 16.0 171.2 81.6 74.3 2.2 4.7 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 11.9 14.8 17.7 160.3 81.0 70.5 3.7 6.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 12.8 22.5 20.3 206.4 87.7 80.1 4.1 7.9 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 12.9 19.1 18.9 196.8 86.3 78.9 1.9 5.8 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 46 54 100 7.0 9.5 12.1 137.5 74.0 66.7 1.2 3.3 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 22.9 26.3 20.3 176.0 83.0 75.9 7.7 15.5 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 11.4 16.4 18.6 197.8 86.2 79.7 4.0 7.7 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 16.7 20.2 21.4 192.8 86.4 79.6 6.2 10.8 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 16.2 20.4 19.2 197.5 86.2 78.9 2.5 7.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 15.8 21.0 16.9 174.1 82.5 74.3 4.2 6.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 15.9 23.1 21.6 227.6 91.4 83.2 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 11.6 13.3 20.8 175.7 82.7 76.7 4.1 9.0 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 2.6 11.2 13.4 142.3 78.3 64.9 0.5 1.1 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 12.9 18.8 19.1 205.3 87.1 78.9 3.6 5.7 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 3.8 8.1 10.8 126.5 69.2 63.2 0.3 3.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 15.9 20.6 22.2 190.5 86.9 79.2 3.0 8.7 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 8.2 11.0 12.8 140.7 75.5 68.1 0.8 2.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 14.9 18.4 24.0 186.5 85.9 79.5 4.0 8.9 13.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 9.5 13.1 18.4 193.9 85.9 78.4 3.7 7.4 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 2.9 9.8 10.4 116.1 67.6 61.2 0.6 1.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 8.4 11.9 13.7 144.3 77.5 69.5 0.8 2.3 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 17.5 21.7 19.7 185.4 85.2 77.4 4.5 10.5 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 8.9 11.2 19.7 182.8 82.3 76.0 1.2 4.8 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 12.8 17.6 18.9 197.3 83.2 77.3 2.6 6.4 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 10.2 12.9 16.6 162.9 78.3 73.3 1.6 4.2 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 7.8 12.1 16.1 164.0 82.3 70.2 0.5 2.2 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 29.1 32.6 22.4 185.8 85.6 78.4 4.5 16.3 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 7.0 8.7 12.9 141.9 75.5 68.7 1.3 3.1 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------