***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 13.4 13.0 11.4 -1.9 18.1 24.3 14.4 15.0 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 13.7 13.9 11.4 -1.8 20.6 24.7 14.3 15.0 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 14.1 13.7 11.6 -2.0 18.2 24.2 14.3 15.4 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 6.0 5.6 8.7 -2.1 19.0 23.4 6.7 7.6 8.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 14.2 13.7 9.7 -2.2 17.6 22.8 14.6 15.7 16.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 12.6 12.1 7.4 -2.4 16.6 22.6 13.3 14.5 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 13.7 13.4 11.3 -1.8 20.5 24.5 13.9 14.9 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 1.6 1.2 7.7 -2.6 14.7 20.8 2.2 3.1 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 13.8 13.2 10.4 -2.2 18.4 23.7 14.2 15.3 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 13.8 13.4 8.7 -2.5 16.7 22.1 13.9 15.4 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 13.9 13.5 9.7 -2.4 16.8 22.5 14.3 15.4 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 12.8 12.2 8.9 -2.4 15.0 21.6 13.1 14.8 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 13.8 13.2 8.6 -2.4 15.8 21.6 14.2 15.6 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 14.4 14.0 10.3 -2.2 19.7 24.0 14.4 15.6 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 13.7 13.5 10.4 -1.9 20.2 25.0 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 14.2 13.6 9.1 -2.4 16.2 22.4 14.4 16.0 17.3 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 12.9 13.1 11.1 -1.8 20.9 24.9 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 13.5 13.0 8.2 -2.4 16.7 22.6 13.7 14.8 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 13.8 13.7 11.5 -1.9 20.8 24.6 14.0 15.2 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 7.8 7.2 5.5 -2.5 16.3 21.3 8.4 10.2 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 14.1 13.7 11.2 -2.1 17.4 23.9 14.5 15.5 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 13.9 14.1 11.2 -1.8 21.5 24.4 14.3 15.0 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 14.2 14.0 11.6 -1.9 20.7 24.4 14.6 15.4 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 14.0 13.4 10.1 -2.2 17.7 23.6 14.2 15.5 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 13.7 13.1 9.9 -2.1 17.3 23.2 14.2 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 12.8 12.3 7.8 -2.5 13.9 19.8 13.6 14.9 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 13.8 13.3 10.8 -1.9 17.7 24.0 14.2 15.2 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 13.9 13.4 9.3 -2.1 19.2 24.0 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 8.2 7.7 7.3 -2.5 17.0 22.0 8.4 10.0 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 13.7 13.5 11.4 -1.9 20.0 24.4 13.9 14.9 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------