***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 14.4 16.5 14.5 -0.6 45.0 45.6 15.1 16.6 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.8 14.2 -0.6 45.6 45.0 15.4 17.1 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 15.8 16.3 14.7 -0.6 43.9 45.3 15.3 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 8.3 9.5 12.3 -0.5 45.8 45.6 7.7 10.9 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 15.9 16.7 13.0 -0.6 44.0 45.5 15.5 18.1 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 15.0 16.6 11.1 -0.4 47.7 47.2 14.5 16.8 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 17.6 16.5 14.2 -0.6 45.1 45.4 15.2 17.2 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.1 11.5 -0.6 43.2 45.9 2.9 5.6 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 15.7 16.0 13.4 -0.6 43.1 45.6 15.1 17.8 18.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 16.0 16.0 12.3 -0.6 42.4 45.8 15.3 17.8 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 15.8 16.7 12.9 -0.6 43.8 45.1 15.2 17.7 20.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.8 12.5 -0.6 44.0 45.5 14.6 17.0 19.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 16.0 16.3 11.8 -0.5 43.2 45.7 15.3 17.6 20.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.7 15.3 13.2 -0.6 41.8 45.7 14.9 17.1 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 16.0 17.4 13.0 -0.5 47.5 45.4 16.3 17.8 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 16.0 17.4 12.4 -0.6 44.3 45.3 15.8 18.3 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.2 14.0 -0.6 45.3 44.9 14.7 16.3 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 18.2 15.1 11.9 -0.5 42.8 46.7 14.9 17.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 17.6 16.6 14.4 -0.7 44.7 44.8 15.2 17.1 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.0 9.2 -0.4 45.9 47.8 9.2 12.8 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 15.7 16.3 14.1 -0.6 43.4 45.6 15.7 17.4 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 15.3 17.0 14.0 -0.7 45.1 44.5 14.8 17.0 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.1 14.5 -0.7 43.0 44.8 14.9 17.1 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.5 15.3 13.2 -0.6 41.9 45.9 15.1 16.9 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 15.5 17.1 13.0 -0.5 44.3 46.2 15.8 17.3 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 15.1 16.0 11.5 -0.6 44.7 45.8 15.1 16.6 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.9 13.8 -0.5 45.3 46.4 15.8 17.5 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 16.3 17.8 12.5 -0.6 46.5 45.3 16.3 18.1 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.7 10.5 11.0 -0.4 43.8 47.3 9.3 13.0 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.7 14.3 -0.6 45.4 45.1 15.2 17.1 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------