***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.1 13.0 -0.7 42.7 44.0 15.0 16.5 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 17.3 16.7 13.0 -0.6 44.3 44.8 16.4 17.0 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.5 13.4 -0.6 43.7 44.7 15.6 17.2 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.4 7.6 10.6 -1.0 38.4 42.0 6.8 8.8 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.7 16.0 11.5 -0.8 39.4 43.7 15.3 17.2 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.8 14.4 9.5 -0.8 40.3 43.7 14.1 15.1 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.1 12.9 -0.6 45.0 44.3 15.8 16.3 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.9 10.0 -0.9 39.4 43.6 3.3 4.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.1 12.0 -0.7 41.4 44.8 15.2 16.9 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.5 16.5 10.8 -0.8 40.6 44.7 15.7 17.1 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.5 15.7 11.4 -0.9 38.3 43.8 15.4 16.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.4 10.9 -1.0 38.2 43.3 15.1 15.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.1 15.9 10.0 -1.0 38.1 42.4 15.6 16.6 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.8 17.3 12.1 -0.5 45.2 46.7 16.0 17.5 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.2 11.3 -1.0 39.9 41.1 14.5 15.9 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.0 16.0 10.8 -0.9 37.9 42.9 15.5 17.5 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.3 15.7 12.8 -0.5 45.3 45.6 15.5 16.0 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.2 10.5 -0.7 42.9 45.5 15.0 16.7 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.6 13.2 -0.6 44.1 45.0 16.0 17.0 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 10.5 7.6 -0.9 42.1 43.7 10.0 11.1 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.4 16.3 12.8 -0.7 42.1 44.7 15.5 16.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 17.3 16.8 12.9 -0.5 45.2 46.0 16.0 17.0 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 17.8 17.2 13.4 -0.6 44.2 45.8 16.3 17.4 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 17.7 16.9 12.0 -0.6 44.0 46.0 15.8 17.3 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.2 11.4 -0.9 42.1 43.0 14.5 16.5 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 14.2 15.1 9.7 -1.1 37.3 41.4 14.9 15.7 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.1 12.3 -0.8 43.1 43.7 15.6 16.7 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.5 14.8 10.8 -1.0 38.7 42.0 14.4 15.7 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.9 9.5 -0.8 42.2 45.0 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 14.8 16.3 13.0 -0.7 44.1 44.4 16.0 16.8 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------