***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 12.3 12.3 10.2 -2.3 22.7 28.8 12.9 14.2 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 12.2 12.0 10.3 -2.1 25.5 30.1 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 12.9 12.8 10.4 -2.3 23.4 29.8 13.4 14.8 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 4.6 3.8 7.3 -2.5 21.6 29.6 5.4 7.7 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 13.0 12.7 8.5 -2.6 22.6 29.3 13.7 14.8 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 11.3 10.7 6.2 -2.8 22.4 29.8 11.7 13.9 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 12.1 12.1 10.1 -2.1 23.8 29.8 12.4 14.0 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 0.5 0.1 6.5 -2.9 23.3 28.7 1.5 2.9 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 12.8 12.6 9.3 -2.5 23.1 29.9 13.1 14.5 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 12.6 12.6 7.5 -2.8 22.5 29.1 13.0 14.6 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 12.7 12.3 8.6 -2.7 23.3 29.3 13.0 14.6 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 11.4 11.3 7.6 -2.7 24.4 29.5 12.2 13.8 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 12.5 11.8 7.7 -2.8 23.3 29.0 13.5 14.8 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 13.1 12.9 9.2 -2.5 24.2 30.7 13.4 15.6 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 12.5 12.9 9.3 -2.3 22.7 30.2 13.5 14.7 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 12.8 12.4 8.0 -2.7 23.5 29.4 13.9 15.0 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 11.4 11.3 10.0 -2.0 26.1 30.8 11.8 13.7 14.7 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 12.1 11.6 6.9 -2.8 23.3 29.5 12.9 14.0 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 12.3 12.1 10.4 -2.2 25.2 30.2 12.8 14.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 6.5 5.9 4.4 -2.8 24.8 29.2 7.3 9.0 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 13.0 12.8 10.1 -2.4 22.7 29.9 13.4 14.7 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 12.6 11.8 10.2 -2.1 25.8 31.0 12.6 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 12.7 12.5 10.5 -2.3 24.6 30.4 13.0 15.0 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 12.9 11.7 9.1 -2.6 23.1 30.2 13.2 15.0 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 12.7 12.6 8.8 -2.5 22.8 28.4 13.0 14.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 11.5 11.4 6.7 -2.7 23.9 29.3 12.5 13.9 16.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 12.7 12.7 9.5 -2.4 22.5 28.4 13.1 14.3 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 12.6 11.8 8.1 -2.5 22.8 29.9 13.6 14.9 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 6.9 6.2 6.1 -2.8 23.5 29.9 7.6 9.5 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 12.3 12.4 10.3 -2.2 24.7 29.6 12.7 13.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------