***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 7.7 6.9 7.9 -4.1 9.6 11.1 8.9 11.9 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 8.6 8.1 8.1 -3.9 11.0 12.4 9.6 11.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 8.3 7.6 7.9 -4.4 10.8 11.4 9.2 13.0 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 -0.8 -1.9 4.6 -4.4 7.4 11.5 0.8 5.0 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 7.3 6.8 5.7 -4.9 7.5 9.0 8.8 13.0 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 6.0 4.7 2.8 -5.6 4.4 6.3 7.5 12.1 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 8.2 7.9 7.9 -3.9 10.8 11.7 9.1 11.6 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -4.0 -5.2 3.0 -5.9 4.8 6.3 -1.0 0.9 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 7.5 6.8 6.9 -4.8 8.9 9.8 8.4 12.9 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 7.1 6.3 4.3 -5.6 7.0 8.0 8.1 13.1 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 7.2 5.9 5.9 -5.2 7.1 8.6 8.6 13.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 6.4 4.8 4.4 -5.4 5.3 7.3 7.1 12.0 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 7.4 6.3 5.1 -5.5 5.2 6.8 9.3 13.2 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 8.5 7.5 6.7 -5.0 9.5 10.4 9.5 13.3 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 7.7 6.4 7.8 -3.7 11.4 14.6 9.7 11.5 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 7.5 7.0 5.2 -5.2 5.7 8.0 9.1 13.6 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 8.0 6.9 7.7 -3.8 11.3 12.4 8.8 10.5 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 7.2 6.2 3.5 -5.7 6.4 7.4 8.4 12.6 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 8.6 8.0 8.1 -4.1 11.2 12.4 9.3 12.0 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 2.1 1.3 0.9 -6.0 4.2 5.3 3.8 7.1 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 8.0 7.0 7.7 -4.6 9.4 10.1 9.0 12.8 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 8.8 8.5 7.9 -4.0 11.1 12.1 9.5 11.3 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 8.8 8.4 8.0 -4.3 11.3 12.1 9.8 12.7 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 8.4 7.0 6.3 -5.2 9.3 9.6 9.0 12.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 99 1 0 100 7.3 7.1 6.6 -4.3 9.1 9.9 9.0 12.1 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 6.9 5.7 3.3 -5.6 3.7 5.5 8.5 12.5 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 7.8 7.1 7.3 -4.1 8.9 10.2 9.0 12.3 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 7.2 5.0 5.8 -4.4 8.3 12.1 9.4 12.2 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 1.7 0.8 2.5 -6.0 5.0 6.3 2.8 7.2 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 8.4 7.5 8.1 -4.0 10.3 12.0 9.4 11.8 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------