***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 2.8 3.0 2.9 -1.1 26.3 30.3 3.6 4.2 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 2.7 2.8 2.7 -1.0 26.8 30.4 3.3 4.1 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 4.9 5.0 3.0 -1.1 25.4 28.2 5.5 6.4 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 -1.3 -1.5 0.4 -1.1 23.8 28.0 -0.6 0.6 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 1.5 1.7 0.9 -1.2 22.7 27.1 2.4 2.7 3.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 0.8 0.6 -1.8 -1.6 17.2 23.2 1.5 2.1 2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.0 2.7 -1.1 25.8 30.0 3.5 4.2 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 -4.7 -4.9 -1.9 -1.8 15.1 21.0 -4.2 -3.3 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 2.9 2.9 1.3 -1.0 27.6 29.9 2.9 3.8 4.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 2.6 2.5 -0.9 -1.5 20.5 24.4 3.3 4.0 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 2.4 2.3 0.3 -1.2 21.8 26.4 3.0 3.7 4.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 0.9 0.7 -0.8 -1.5 17.9 23.8 1.8 2.2 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 2.2 2.0 -1.0 -1.5 17.9 23.5 2.5 3.1 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 3.5 3.3 1.0 -1.0 26.1 29.9 3.9 4.6 4.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.1 3.2 1.9 -0.8 27.2 32.0 3.3 4.0 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 2.9 2.6 -0.3 -1.3 20.7 25.4 3.6 4.2 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 3.2 3.1 2.6 -1.1 26.7 30.1 3.2 4.4 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 0.7 0.7 -1.5 -1.6 18.7 23.7 1.1 1.9 2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 2.9 2.7 2.7 -1.0 26.5 30.0 2.9 4.1 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 -2.4 -2.8 -3.8 -2.1 14.3 19.5 -1.5 -0.6 -0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 2.5 2.8 2.4 -1.0 27.1 30.0 3.2 3.8 4.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 2.7 2.5 2.5 -1.1 25.9 29.3 3.0 3.6 3.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.3 2.7 2.6 -1.0 26.7 30.0 3.0 3.5 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 2.6 2.5 0.8 -1.2 23.5 26.9 3.3 3.8 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 2.5 3.0 1.8 -1.1 24.9 29.4 3.1 3.7 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 2.1 2.0 -1.4 -1.6 17.3 23.3 2.5 2.9 3.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 2.5 3.5 2.5 -1.1 25.9 29.9 3.8 4.3 5.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 1.3 1.2 0.7 -1.1 23.5 27.8 1.7 2.4 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 -0.6 -0.9 -2.5 -1.8 16.5 21.4 0.0 1.2 1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 3.1 3.3 2.8 -1.1 25.8 29.7 3.8 4.5 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------