***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.03.2021.-28.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 1.6 1.2 1.5 -1.9 20.1 28.3 2.5 3.6 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 1.5 1.3 1.4 -1.8 22.4 29.4 2.7 3.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 3.3 2.8 1.7 -1.8 20.7 28.4 4.8 5.6 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 -2.8 -3.4 -1.2 -2.0 20.1 28.0 -2.0 0.2 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -2.1 18.2 27.3 2.1 3.3 3.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 -0.9 -1.6 -3.3 -2.5 17.4 25.8 1.1 2.2 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 1.7 1.2 1.4 -1.8 22.6 29.6 2.6 3.5 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 -7.1 -8.7 -3.6 -2.9 13.7 23.1 -5.0 -3.0 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 1.6 1.0 0.0 -1.8 18.5 28.0 2.1 4.3 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 1.6 0.8 -2.4 -2.5 15.7 25.2 2.4 4.0 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 1.5 0.9 -1.0 -2.1 17.1 26.2 2.7 3.9 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 -0.7 -1.7 -2.2 -2.5 15.4 24.9 1.1 2.4 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 0.3 -1.3 -2.4 -2.6 13.8 24.4 2.1 3.1 4.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 2.5 2.1 -0.4 -1.9 20.4 28.8 2.9 4.1 5.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 1.6 1.6 0.6 -1.6 24.0 29.8 2.8 3.7 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 1.2 0.5 -1.6 -2.3 16.8 26.2 3.1 4.3 4.9 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 2.1 1.9 1.2 -1.8 22.3 29.2 2.6 3.4 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 -0.3 -1.1 -3.0 -2.6 15.4 25.4 0.6 1.6 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 1.4 1.1 1.4 -1.8 22.1 29.2 2.7 3.6 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 -4.1 -5.9 -5.3 -3.2 13.6 23.1 -2.0 -0.9 -0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 1.5 1.3 1.1 -1.8 20.2 27.9 1.9 3.7 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 1.5 1.3 1.2 -1.9 21.2 27.9 2.0 2.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 1.1 1.0 1.3 -1.7 21.4 29.6 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 1.4 0.8 -0.5 -2.1 17.9 27.8 2.0 3.7 4.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 1.2 0.7 0.4 -2.1 19.3 27.2 2.2 3.9 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 0.4 -0.4 -2.8 -2.6 16.0 24.9 1.5 3.1 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 0.8 0.1 0.9 -2.0 19.9 27.8 3.3 4.4 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 -2.0 20.6 28.2 0.7 2.5 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 -2.2 -3.2 -4.1 -2.9 14.1 24.0 -0.6 0.8 1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 2.0 1.5 1.5 -1.8 22.4 29.1 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------