***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.03.2021.-21.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 -0.3 -0.5 0.7 -1.8 24.2 25.1 0.2 1.0 1.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 -0.8 -0.4 0.4 -1.9 23.3 25.2 0.1 1.1 2.0 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 0.9 0.9 0.8 -2.0 21.7 22.6 1.8 4.0 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 -5.2 -5.1 -1.5 -1.6 28.4 28.6 -4.8 -2.4 0.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 -0.9 -1.2 -0.7 -1.8 23.4 24.7 -0.9 0.1 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 -1.6 -1.7 -3.9 -2.4 15.8 18.2 -0.9 -0.4 0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 -0.6 -0.4 0.4 -1.9 25.5 25.8 0.3 1.5 2.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 -8.7 -9.1 -4.1 -2.7 15.7 17.5 -7.7 -6.0 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -1.2 30.7 30.2 0.2 1.5 2.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 -0.1 -0.1 -2.8 -2.2 21.3 22.1 0.3 1.3 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 -0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -1.6 25.5 26.3 -0.1 0.5 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 -1.5 -1.4 -2.4 -2.1 21.4 22.7 -1.0 -0.7 0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 -0.5 -0.6 -2.2 -2.0 19.9 21.8 0.1 1.2 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 0.8 0.9 -0.6 -1.4 29.7 29.7 1.0 1.9 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 2.0 1.1 0.9 -0.6 39.5 40.7 0.8 1.7 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 0.4 0.3 -1.6 -1.8 21.8 23.4 0.5 1.5 2.3 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -1.9 25.5 25.7 0.7 1.5 2.6 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 -2.1 -1.9 -3.4 -2.4 18.3 19.9 -1.1 -0.6 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 -0.9 -0.9 0.5 -1.8 22.8 24.6 0.1 1.4 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 -4.7 -5.6 -6.2 -3.6 12.3 13.7 -4.1 -3.3 -2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 -0.2 -0.5 0.7 -1.6 28.8 27.2 0.1 1.1 2.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 -0.9 -0.6 0.5 -1.8 25.9 25.4 0.1 0.8 2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 -0.8 -0.8 0.4 -1.7 23.7 24.6 0.3 0.9 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 -0.2 0.0 -0.8 -1.8 23.1 24.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 -1.8 25.3 25.3 -0.3 1.0 2.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 -0.4 -0.2 -3.2 -2.3 20.2 22.2 0.2 0.8 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 -0.4 -0.9 0.3 -1.9 24.7 25.5 -0.4 1.4 2.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -1.2 -1.1 -0.8 -1.4 29.9 30.9 -1.0 -0.4 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 -4.4 -4.7 -5.0 -3.0 13.9 15.8 -3.3 -1.5 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 -0.5 -0.8 0.6 -1.9 22.8 24.0 0.3 1.8 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------