***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 33.5 34.3 44.9 102.9 57.7 51.6 22.6 30.8 39.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 36.4 31.6 38.7 86.8 47.5 43.5 21.8 33.3 40.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 45.2 41.4 45.4 99.5 52.1 49.3 25.0 38.2 49.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 34.4 44.5 52.6 99.5 53.0 49.5 36.9 44.2 51.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 46.2 44.6 53.5 101.8 59.0 51.5 36.0 41.7 48.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 40.5 38.1 56.6 96.1 48.3 47.9 31.7 38.4 41.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 18.1 25.4 36.6 83.1 46.9 41.4 18.6 28.3 35.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 43.8 72.6 57.2 101.3 57.1 52.1 50.0 56.0 83.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 38.4 38.4 55.3 107.0 61.3 54.5 27.8 34.3 41.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 38.1 57.1 60.0 105.0 59.8 53.8 35.5 51.9 59.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 50.8 54.9 51.8 107.5 63.7 55.1 31.3 47.8 55.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 45.4 46.7 50.7 105.8 60.4 54.5 30.3 40.8 49.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 45.9 43.9 54.3 103.3 55.3 52.4 32.3 41.8 49.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 36.9 49.9 60.2 103.8 56.1 52.1 39.5 48.8 63.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 21.4 30.9 46.1 91.5 44.1 45.8 23.6 32.7 40.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 40.6 38.7 53.1 106.8 59.7 55.0 30.1 37.5 39.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 30.3 24.1 36.5 84.5 45.8 42.3 20.3 24.5 34.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 30.2 42.8 64.5 101.7 51.9 51.2 32.6 41.9 47.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 38.6 32.4 41.2 90.8 47.4 45.5 22.9 32.7 48.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 30.6 38.8 69.6 96.3 47.1 48.1 35.0 39.0 52.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 37.3 38.1 49.7 106.4 61.8 53.4 29.0 34.1 39.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 24.5 28.4 39.9 89.3 47.3 44.4 23.7 29.7 39.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 39.5 35.1 45.4 95.9 47.7 47.8 25.2 35.8 39.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 33.6 45.5 57.8 103.1 54.9 51.7 34.1 42.5 54.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 34.8 30.6 51.6 98.3 50.4 48.3 28.8 30.6 40.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 40.9 39.1 51.4 101.4 53.1 51.3 29.6 38.2 44.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 35.2 32.6 46.7 95.8 49.8 47.1 24.4 32.7 37.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 24.5 34.0 50.6 98.2 51.5 49.9 26.4 33.8 40.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 69.9 63.5 66.7 99.9 50.3 49.9 49.6 63.1 79.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 21.0 30.1 39.4 88.3 48.8 43.7 12.7 32.5 41.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------