***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 11.3 8.8 11.9 117.1 66.9 59.2 3.1 5.9 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.8 12.0 113.3 64.9 54.5 2.9 7.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.1 12.1 116.8 66.8 59.1 3.7 6.5 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.8 17.4 12.8 109.5 66.0 55.6 6.2 12.4 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.0 12.7 12.8 109.9 66.8 55.5 4.3 7.3 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.6 13.2 98.0 57.8 50.6 4.3 6.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.7 11.2 106.5 62.1 53.6 1.6 5.3 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.0 19.8 14.2 109.7 66.8 57.3 9.2 16.1 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 12.6 10.9 13.2 112.6 67.8 57.3 4.0 6.1 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 15.0 14.1 14.5 110.9 67.5 57.3 5.1 10.7 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.7 10.9 12.5 117.9 71.0 57.7 2.8 7.0 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.9 12.6 118.8 69.8 59.5 1.5 8.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.8 12.1 14.1 122.5 68.5 59.2 2.8 7.3 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.7 16.3 122.5 68.6 60.0 9.1 11.0 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.2 10.9 100.8 63.9 54.1 2.1 5.3 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.2 14.9 13.2 122.2 69.2 58.2 2.5 6.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.7 11.0 106.0 63.5 52.0 2.6 4.0 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.4 12.7 15.8 107.6 63.6 56.5 4.1 8.2 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.8 13.5 12.6 119.7 66.9 56.9 3.7 6.8 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.0 10.7 17.9 108.0 63.5 55.9 3.1 6.4 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.7 13.0 12.2 117.4 70.1 58.9 3.2 5.5 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.0 10.1 12.2 115.4 65.2 54.4 3.2 6.1 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 13.2 13.6 13.3 123.6 68.7 59.3 3.1 6.8 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 12.1 9.6 14.6 112.8 66.0 58.0 4.7 6.8 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.9 11.5 13.2 111.2 66.6 56.9 5.0 6.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.7 11.4 12.5 114.7 64.0 57.6 1.9 5.6 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.9 9.1 12.7 111.8 65.7 57.1 3.3 6.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.0 12.1 12.0 106.5 65.0 54.9 3.4 6.1 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.3 15.3 16.5 107.1 62.8 56.4 7.3 12.0 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.0 11.9 113.5 64.1 55.8 3.6 5.8 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------