***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 4.6 5.2 13.5 115.2 66.8 59.0 1.3 3.3 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.1 6.0 12.0 99.2 61.3 53.7 1.3 3.5 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 5.4 7.4 14.4 117.2 67.1 58.3 2.3 4.4 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 14.3 15.1 17.1 119.8 70.8 59.5 4.9 8.7 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 10.5 10.6 17.6 126.9 71.1 61.2 3.4 7.3 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.0 18.7 118.1 64.5 58.8 3.7 5.0 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.5 4.5 11.4 95.6 60.6 52.2 0.4 1.9 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 17.1 17.6 18.8 132.7 71.6 61.7 5.4 12.0 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 8.1 9.9 19.0 137.2 75.3 63.8 2.8 4.4 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 10.0 12.3 20.2 137.2 73.6 63.0 2.1 5.9 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 9.3 9.6 16.8 134.8 72.4 62.2 3.4 4.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 8.4 10.1 16.4 136.9 73.6 63.2 2.8 4.7 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 14.8 12.5 17.8 130.9 68.6 61.9 3.4 4.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 11.6 14.3 20.1 129.0 74.1 62.0 2.2 3.9 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.9 11.6 15.5 111.8 67.0 55.0 2.7 4.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 11.2 12.2 17.3 134.9 74.0 63.3 2.8 4.7 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.4 3.2 12.0 104.1 62.9 53.2 1.1 2.4 3.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 9.8 10.8 22.0 133.8 73.7 62.7 1.0 4.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 3.0 6.5 12.9 105.5 64.4 55.8 0.6 2.0 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 9.2 10.1 23.8 131.2 72.3 62.8 3.7 5.2 9.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 10.2 11.1 16.4 130.7 72.1 62.7 1.9 5.8 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.8 12.8 109.8 63.4 55.1 1.2 4.3 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.8 7.6 14.6 114.6 69.5 58.6 2.2 3.8 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 9.1 9.6 19.4 129.9 72.6 61.5 2.0 3.7 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.0 10.5 16.1 115.2 65.6 58.6 3.8 6.6 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 13.2 10.3 17.0 130.7 70.8 62.1 2.0 5.4 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 5.1 5.9 14.2 108.8 63.9 56.7 1.9 3.3 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 10.3 11.1 16.8 121.1 70.8 59.9 3.5 4.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 14.3 17.6 22.9 132.9 73.0 63.2 3.7 6.8 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.6 3.7 12.3 101.7 62.3 53.7 1.3 2.5 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------