***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.4 16.6 14.3 121.8 68.6 57.9 1.3 5.7 15.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 4.5 10.3 85.0 53.7 49.4 2.2 4.3 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.8 13.4 12.8 106.2 65.5 51.7 2.3 5.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.3 13.9 102.5 64.2 50.5 2.8 6.2 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.4 13.5 15.2 111.8 66.1 52.3 2.0 4.1 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 5.0 15.6 17.2 106.6 62.8 53.3 1.5 9.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.2 9.9 83.9 54.5 49.4 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 8.5 17.1 13.8 96.1 56.2 46.6 8.5 14.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.8 11.0 15.0 111.6 64.9 52.1 1.3 4.2 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.3 10.4 14.0 96.8 56.8 46.9 1.8 6.9 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.9 12.8 14.0 112.9 65.2 51.0 0.6 4.1 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.9 13.9 13.8 112.4 64.5 51.6 1.4 5.9 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.6 14.3 14.5 105.8 63.5 50.1 2.4 9.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.9 15.9 15.0 97.8 58.1 49.2 4.9 13.9 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.0 8.3 11.9 87.7 58.8 45.6 1.2 4.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.0 15.0 15.7 119.6 69.8 55.2 1.5 7.9 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.7 9.6 81.6 53.8 49.8 3.2 6.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.5 11.7 15.2 94.1 57.4 47.3 3.5 7.5 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.6 10.8 87.3 54.9 49.3 2.2 7.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 4.1 10.9 16.2 81.8 51.5 42.8 4.9 10.8 15.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.1 11.1 13.9 112.6 68.2 52.3 3.2 5.2 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.2 10.3 81.9 55.1 48.5 3.4 7.6 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.5 12.0 94.2 56.9 50.1 2.7 9.1 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.2 18.3 14.9 103.2 61.7 50.8 4.3 10.5 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.3 15.7 112.6 64.0 54.7 2.0 6.4 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.3 11.1 14.9 115.9 64.8 55.4 1.6 4.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.2 6.5 14.3 108.6 61.8 53.9 2.5 4.5 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.1 8.0 13.4 98.5 63.3 49.2 0.5 2.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.0 13.3 16.1 91.7 55.5 47.7 5.9 11.8 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.0 10.4 86.7 54.6 48.7 2.0 4.8 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------