***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.0 3.1 5.2 52.0 47.7 40.6 1.9 3.4 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.6 1.5 4.4 44.9 41.6 35.9 0.8 2.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.0 4.0 6.0 55.4 46.5 40.6 2.8 4.1 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 8.4 7.0 8.8 66.0 49.9 45.5 3.5 7.0 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.8 4.6 7.9 58.7 37.4 37.6 4.1 8.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.1 2.8 7.5 55.6 34.9 34.6 2.6 5.8 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.5 2.7 4.0 41.5 41.3 34.3 0.9 3.5 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.9 11.2 10.5 69.3 43.1 42.0 8.6 14.4 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.3 5.0 8.1 63.9 40.6 39.8 4.1 6.8 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 12.2 9.7 11.3 75.3 45.4 44.6 5.3 10.8 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.7 4.5 8.5 66.0 43.9 42.5 3.5 7.3 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.4 5.1 7.9 60.2 38.5 38.3 4.2 6.3 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.2 4.3 7.8 57.3 36.1 34.3 3.8 6.4 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.5 4.6 8.8 63.9 41.8 40.7 3.7 5.2 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 2.8 2.0 7.8 64.5 53.0 47.3 0.4 1.4 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 2.6 4.2 6.9 53.2 34.4 33.8 3.9 6.9 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 3.4 1.0 4.0 41.6 42.1 35.1 0.4 1.3 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 9.2 6.2 11.4 70.9 44.1 42.1 3.6 7.8 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.6 1.6 4.8 47.4 41.3 36.6 1.1 2.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.7 6.1 11.7 65.7 39.2 39.1 3.9 8.1 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.7 6.8 7.2 63.1 46.4 42.4 3.8 7.0 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.7 1.0 4.7 47.2 41.4 36.4 0.7 1.5 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.1 2.1 5.5 49.7 41.2 36.9 1.4 2.4 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.6 5.7 8.9 64.5 44.1 40.8 4.1 9.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.4 2.8 6.6 52.1 38.3 37.2 2.1 5.7 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 2.5 2.6 6.9 50.0 32.6 31.1 2.7 6.3 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.8 3.3 5.5 49.2 41.0 37.4 1.9 4.1 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 4.7 2.6 8.4 65.9 49.3 45.3 0.8 3.2 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 19.3 12.8 11.1 67.0 41.0 40.2 5.0 16.4 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.1 2.6 4.7 47.4 44.4 37.6 1.2 3.0 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------