***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.7 13.5 0.8 65.9 61.0 14.1 14.7 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.6 13.3 0.6 59.5 58.9 14.1 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.3 13.7 0.9 65.3 61.9 14.4 15.2 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.9 11.1 0.5 60.0 57.3 6.6 7.1 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.7 12.0 0.8 64.1 61.7 14.5 15.4 16.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.4 9.8 0.5 56.2 56.0 13.2 14.2 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.4 13.2 0.6 60.8 58.8 13.7 14.8 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 3.4 3.4 10.0 0.3 54.1 54.1 2.1 2.8 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.4 16.2 12.6 0.8 62.5 60.7 14.1 15.0 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.7 11.0 0.5 57.4 56.2 13.9 15.0 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 16.4 16.4 12.0 1.0 66.5 63.4 14.1 15.2 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.9 11.1 0.4 55.5 56.0 12.8 14.5 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 15.7 16.2 11.0 0.6 59.6 58.3 13.9 15.3 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.8 12.4 0.6 59.6 58.0 14.3 15.3 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.9 12.6 1.2 71.3 67.4 14.2 15.2 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.8 11.4 0.7 60.9 60.2 14.2 15.7 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.3 13.0 0.5 59.7 58.3 13.2 14.0 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 15.2 14.9 10.4 0.4 57.2 55.5 13.7 14.7 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.7 13.5 0.6 59.7 59.4 14.1 15.1 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.2 10.0 7.6 0.0 50.4 49.3 8.4 10.0 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 16.1 16.4 13.4 0.9 66.1 62.7 14.4 15.1 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.5 13.2 0.5 58.8 58.1 14.0 14.8 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.5 16.1 13.6 0.8 63.2 60.9 14.6 15.0 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.0 12.3 0.7 61.5 59.0 14.0 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 15.9 16.1 12.2 1.0 69.5 63.5 14.3 15.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.6 10.1 0.2 49.7 53.3 13.7 14.6 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.2 16.4 12.9 0.9 67.4 62.4 14.2 14.8 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.9 11.7 0.6 61.9 59.2 14.5 15.5 16.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.4 10.2 9.5 0.5 58.5 55.6 8.5 9.7 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.6 13.4 0.6 59.9 58.5 13.8 14.8 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------