***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 14.4 16.9 15.0 -0.2 51.3 49.6 16.1 16.8 17.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.4 14.7 -0.3 52.0 48.3 15.9 17.2 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 16.1 18.0 15.3 0.0 54.1 51.6 16.5 17.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 8.4 10.3 13.0 -0.4 46.0 47.7 9.1 11.1 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 16.4 18.3 13.7 0.0 55.5 51.0 16.6 17.9 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 15.4 17.0 11.7 -0.2 48.7 48.9 15.4 17.1 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 17.5 17.1 14.7 -0.3 51.3 48.1 16.1 17.0 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.8 6.3 12.1 -0.1 51.1 50.0 4.4 6.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 15.8 17.3 14.0 -0.1 52.2 49.8 16.2 17.1 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 15.9 17.3 12.8 -0.1 52.1 49.8 16.3 17.0 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 15.9 18.1 13.5 0.1 55.6 51.7 16.5 17.7 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 14.9 16.6 13.0 0.0 50.6 50.2 15.5 16.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 16.3 17.6 12.3 -0.3 46.5 48.0 16.6 18.0 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 15.7 17.3 13.7 -0.2 51.9 49.3 16.1 17.3 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 16.2 17.8 13.7 0.0 53.2 51.5 16.7 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 16.4 18.2 13.0 -0.1 51.1 50.1 17.0 18.1 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.2 14.6 -0.3 51.6 49.0 15.4 16.1 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 15.3 17.8 12.4 0.1 55.0 51.2 16.0 16.6 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.3 14.9 -0.2 52.5 49.2 16.2 17.2 18.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 10.1 11.4 9.6 -0.3 47.9 47.8 10.5 11.6 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 15.9 17.7 14.8 0.0 54.3 51.1 16.6 17.4 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.8 14.6 -0.3 50.9 48.8 15.9 16.7 18.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 16.0 17.8 15.0 0.0 54.3 51.1 15.6 17.5 19.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 15.2 17.0 13.8 -0.1 53.5 50.0 16.4 17.0 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 15.8 17.6 13.6 -0.1 53.5 50.4 16.4 17.3 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 15.7 17.2 12.1 -0.1 48.6 49.5 15.4 17.4 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 18.0 17.7 14.4 0.0 53.7 50.6 16.5 17.4 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 16.2 18.3 13.3 -0.4 46.2 47.6 17.2 18.4 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 10.0 13.4 11.5 0.2 55.7 51.4 10.6 11.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 15.6 17.0 14.8 -0.4 49.9 47.7 16.3 17.0 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------