***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 13.4 16.5 13.9 0.2 54.7 51.1 14.7 15.7 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 14.4 16.9 13.5 -0.1 47.1 48.1 15.4 17.0 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 14.3 17.3 14.1 0.3 54.1 51.8 15.4 17.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.6 8.7 11.7 0.0 51.0 49.3 6.4 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 13.7 16.8 12.3 0.2 53.2 50.8 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 12.5 14.8 10.2 -0.2 47.2 47.8 13.7 14.9 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.6 16.6 13.5 -0.1 49.9 48.6 15.2 16.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 1.9 3.4 10.4 -0.4 45.5 47.4 2.9 4.0 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 13.2 16.6 12.6 -0.1 51.2 49.2 14.7 16.6 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 13.4 16.5 11.2 -0.3 47.3 48.2 15.0 16.5 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 13.5 16.5 11.9 0.1 50.9 50.3 14.7 16.5 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 12.9 15.4 11.3 -0.4 47.6 47.7 14.3 15.6 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 14.3 16.2 10.6 -0.6 45.1 46.3 15.2 16.4 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 14.0 16.9 12.3 -0.4 46.9 47.1 15.5 16.9 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 13.8 16.5 12.6 0.5 59.8 54.2 14.0 16.0 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 14.5 16.8 11.5 -0.1 48.0 49.2 15.7 16.8 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 14.0 16.0 13.3 -0.1 47.9 48.2 14.4 16.0 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 13.3 15.9 10.8 -0.2 48.6 48.6 14.9 16.0 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 14.4 16.5 13.7 -0.1 48.6 48.7 15.3 16.5 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 8.1 10.6 7.9 -0.7 44.1 45.2 9.6 10.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 13.7 17.0 13.5 0.3 53.4 51.3 15.2 16.7 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 14.4 16.6 13.3 -0.2 47.9 47.3 15.0 16.7 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 14.8 17.1 13.8 0.1 51.3 50.0 15.5 17.0 17.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 13.8 16.7 12.4 -0.2 48.7 48.5 15.4 16.7 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 14.0 16.7 12.4 0.3 56.7 51.7 14.9 15.9 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 13.7 15.3 10.4 -0.5 45.2 46.7 14.4 15.6 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 14.6 16.9 13.2 0.4 56.3 52.0 14.7 16.5 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 13.3 16.0 12.0 0.0 50.1 49.5 13.5 16.0 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 8.1 10.8 9.8 -0.3 48.6 48.1 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 14.3 16.6 13.7 -0.1 48.4 48.3 15.3 16.6 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------