***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.03.2016.-27.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 15.5 16.3 14.3 2.5 78.8 69.8 12.2 13.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.5 14.0 2.2 72.8 68.8 12.5 13.7 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 16.3 17.0 14.7 2.8 80.3 71.8 12.6 15.0 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 9.4 10.1 12.1 2.4 74.4 69.1 4.3 7.5 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 17.4 18.7 13.2 3.0 79.9 73.4 13.0 15.3 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 16.3 18.0 11.1 2.7 79.2 71.5 11.2 13.7 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 14.9 15.4 13.8 2.1 71.2 67.7 12.2 13.1 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 5.6 6.8 11.4 2.6 76.4 71.1 0.6 2.8 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 16.9 18.2 13.9 3.2 80.5 74.0 12.9 15.1 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 17.1 17.9 12.4 2.9 78.2 72.1 12.5 15.5 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 17.3 18.8 13.3 3.5 82.7 76.3 12.7 15.3 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 16.3 17.1 12.2 2.5 77.2 71.0 11.5 14.5 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 16.9 18.5 12.3 3.1 81.1 74.8 13.0 14.9 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 16.7 17.9 13.8 3.1 81.4 72.8 12.9 15.3 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 16.8 18.0 13.8 3.9 89.1 79.4 13.2 14.2 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 17.6 19.0 12.6 3.0 81.0 73.8 12.7 15.6 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 14.1 14.6 13.6 2.0 70.6 67.4 11.7 12.9 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.6 11.7 2.7 76.6 70.6 12.0 14.6 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 15.7 16.3 14.3 2.4 74.7 69.8 12.2 14.2 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 10.8 11.1 8.8 2.2 72.9 68.7 6.4 9.2 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 16.7 17.4 14.6 3.2 82.4 74.4 12.8 15.1 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 15.5 15.9 13.8 2.2 71.8 69.0 12.2 14.5 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.7 14.6 2.7 78.3 71.8 12.4 14.7 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 17.1 18.1 13.7 3.1 81.4 72.9 12.2 15.2 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 15.9 16.7 13.2 3.1 82.3 74.0 12.4 14.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 16.5 17.4 11.0 1.9 75.3 67.9 12.1 14.0 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 15.8 16.6 13.6 2.6 78.9 70.9 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 17.2 18.4 12.8 3.0 79.3 72.9 12.4 14.9 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 11.6 12.3 10.8 2.8 77.5 71.4 6.8 10.0 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 15.1 15.6 14.1 2.2 73.5 68.7 11.9 13.6 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------