***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-20.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 11.6 13.2 10.9 0.5 59.9 59.1 9.3 11.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 11.0 13.2 11.0 0.5 59.2 57.9 9.9 10.6 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 12.6 13.3 10.8 0.3 58.4 57.2 9.6 12.4 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 4.7 4.6 7.7 -0.1 55.4 53.5 1.2 4.1 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 12.8 13.6 9.0 0.1 58.4 56.3 9.1 12.5 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 12.2 12.0 6.2 -0.5 52.1 49.6 7.4 11.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 11.2 12.6 10.9 0.5 59.3 58.2 9.4 10.7 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 1.5 0.8 6.4 -0.9 49.3 47.0 -1.1 0.9 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 12.7 12.7 10.0 0.1 56.7 55.0 8.6 12.4 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 13.2 12.8 7.6 -0.7 50.1 48.6 8.4 12.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 12.9 13.5 9.1 0.4 59.3 58.2 8.9 12.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 93 7 100 12.0 12.4 7.7 -0.4 54.3 51.6 7.5 11.7 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 13.1 13.5 8.6 0.3 60.0 57.3 8.8 12.9 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 13.1 13.1 9.7 -0.1 53.8 53.7 9.8 12.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 12.0 13.6 10.3 0.4 59.5 58.5 10.1 11.5 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 94 6 100 13.6 13.9 8.5 0.1 57.1 55.8 9.1 13.4 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 10.6 12.1 10.7 0.4 56.8 56.9 9.2 10.1 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 12.6 11.9 6.7 -0.9 47.5 46.7 8.7 12.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 92 8 100 11.4 13.3 11.0 0.4 58.9 57.4 9.5 11.0 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 7.7 6.0 4.2 -1.3 44.9 42.3 3.9 6.8 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 12.5 13.7 10.7 0.3 59.2 57.3 9.1 12.2 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 11.3 13.1 10.9 0.4 57.4 56.7 10.0 10.8 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 11.9 13.3 10.9 0.4 58.1 57.1 9.8 11.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 92 8 100 12.6 12.7 9.4 -0.1 54.1 53.5 9.9 12.2 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 11.8 13.0 9.8 0.6 60.9 59.8 9.7 11.4 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 94 6 100 12.7 12.7 6.9 -0.3 51.7 51.3 8.3 12.5 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 12.0 12.8 10.4 0.6 60.4 59.6 9.3 11.6 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 12.6 13.4 8.6 -0.1 55.1 53.4 10.0 12.1 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 7.4 6.8 6.0 -0.7 49.9 47.5 3.2 6.8 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 11.2 12.8 11.0 0.4 59.2 58.0 9.5 10.8 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------