***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.03.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.5 4.1 0.6 65.4 62.0 3.2 4.0 4.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.0 3.8 0.5 61.5 59.1 3.0 3.8 4.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 6.8 7.1 4.3 1.0 74.6 67.9 5.2 6.1 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 0.8 0.7 1.9 1.0 74.6 68.4 -0.7 0.2 0.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 3.4 3.8 2.4 1.4 79.5 73.7 2.0 2.4 3.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 2.5 2.6 0.1 1.3 74.1 71.6 1.1 1.8 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.1 3.8 0.6 63.2 60.4 3.4 3.9 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 -2.6 -2.5 0.1 1.0 69.7 67.3 -4.3 -3.5 -2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 4.2 4.5 2.6 1.0 74.3 69.2 2.7 3.4 4.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 4.3 4.5 1.0 1.0 72.5 68.3 3.0 3.8 4.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 4.2 4.5 1.9 1.3 78.8 73.8 2.9 3.2 4.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 2.7 2.7 1.0 0.9 65.7 65.2 1.4 2.0 2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 3.7 3.9 0.8 1.1 73.9 69.0 2.2 2.9 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 4.7 4.7 2.4 0.8 67.6 64.4 3.6 4.4 4.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 4.7 4.9 3.2 1.5 85.7 77.5 3.1 3.9 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 4.9 4.9 1.3 1.1 75.4 70.6 3.4 4.2 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.3 3.7 0.5 61.4 60.0 3.0 4.1 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 2.1 2.3 0.5 1.2 74.3 69.3 0.7 1.6 2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.9 4.1 3.8 0.5 62.5 60.6 2.8 3.8 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 -0.4 -0.5 -1.9 1.0 65.8 65.2 -1.7 -0.8 -0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 4.2 4.5 3.8 1.1 76.2 69.1 2.9 3.5 4.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 3.4 3.5 3.7 0.5 59.6 59.1 2.7 3.2 3.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.8 3.8 0.8 67.3 64.8 2.9 3.4 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 4.1 4.2 2.4 1.0 75.3 68.7 3.1 3.6 4.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 4.5 4.9 3.1 1.2 77.9 69.9 2.9 3.5 4.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 3.0 3.0 0.3 0.6 58.4 59.6 2.2 2.8 3.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 4.8 5.1 3.7 1.0 72.6 66.4 3.5 4.1 4.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 2.9 3.1 2.2 1.1 76.4 70.2 1.3 2.3 2.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 1.6 1.9 -0.3 1.2 74.6 69.1 0.0 0.9 1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.4 3.9 0.5 62.7 59.9 3.5 4.1 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------