***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.0 5.5 -0.1 49.9 49.2 5.5 6.0 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.9 5.1 -0.3 48.0 46.6 4.6 5.9 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.1 5.6 0.2 54.1 52.5 7.2 8.1 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.1 3.0 0.0 50.3 51.2 1.7 2.1 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.7 3.3 0.3 54.1 54.0 3.6 4.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.1 1.4 0.5 56.8 56.1 2.6 4.0 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.9 5.8 5.2 -0.2 47.6 47.6 5.2 5.9 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.3 -1.9 1.3 0.1 48.9 51.7 -2.4 -1.8 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.3 3.6 0.0 50.9 50.4 4.7 5.2 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.3 2.1 0.1 50.1 51.5 4.5 5.3 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.3 2.7 0.2 47.6 52.2 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.2 2.1 -0.1 46.2 48.8 2.6 3.6 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.5 4.5 1.6 0.0 45.3 49.5 3.8 4.9 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.9 3.5 -0.2 49.4 48.6 5.5 6.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.8 4.1 0.5 59.5 57.9 5.8 6.3 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.5 2.2 0.1 47.3 51.1 5.3 5.7 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.8 5.9 5.1 -0.2 50.8 48.5 5.6 5.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.5 1.5 0.1 50.5 51.0 2.1 3.4 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.4 5.2 -0.2 49.1 47.8 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -0.4 0.4 -0.8 0.0 48.3 50.2 -0.5 0.5 1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.4 4.9 0.1 52.4 51.9 4.9 5.4 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.2 5.2 4.9 -0.3 46.9 45.9 4.8 5.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.4 5.0 0.0 52.0 51.2 4.2 5.4 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.6 3.3 -0.1 48.5 49.0 4.3 5.8 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.1 4.2 0.3 57.5 53.9 4.7 5.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.0 1.4 -0.3 41.3 45.8 3.7 4.4 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.9 6.7 5.0 0.1 55.4 52.3 5.2 6.4 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.0 3.2 0.0 50.3 51.9 2.7 4.0 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 50.2 51.1 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.0 5.3 -0.3 47.3 46.7 5.1 6.2 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------