***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 4.7 5.0 0.8 59.0 56.8 3.4 4.2 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.5 4.5 0.3 54.0 54.1 3.2 4.2 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.1 8.0 5.0 1.0 62.7 60.6 5.8 6.2 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -0.6 0.9 2.5 0.9 60.5 60.0 -0.6 0.6 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 4.4 3.9 2.8 1.2 62.6 63.1 2.2 3.0 4.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.8 0.5 0.9 60.7 62.2 1.4 2.1 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.1 4.4 4.5 0.5 55.2 54.8 3.4 4.0 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -2.7 0.7 1.0 57.8 61.2 -4.2 -3.0 -1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.5 4.8 3.1 1.0 60.2 60.8 2.9 3.6 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 4.5 5.1 1.5 1.0 58.9 61.8 2.9 4.0 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.5 2.1 1.0 59.3 61.8 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 3.2 3.1 1.5 0.6 55.6 58.2 1.3 2.8 3.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.1 3.4 0.8 0.4 54.8 57.1 2.1 3.4 4.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.9 2.8 0.5 54.5 57.2 3.7 4.6 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.7 3.5 1.3 69.6 64.9 3.2 4.1 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.9 1.6 0.7 58.2 59.3 3.3 4.4 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.3 4.9 4.4 0.4 56.5 54.5 3.8 4.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 0.9 1.9 1.0 1.1 59.9 62.2 0.9 1.6 2.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.9 4.1 4.5 0.4 53.8 55.2 3.3 4.0 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -0.5 -0.6 -1.3 1.0 54.8 60.9 -1.6 -1.2 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.7 4.4 1.1 63.3 60.9 3.0 4.1 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.8 4.2 0.2 53.5 53.0 3.0 3.6 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.4 3.9 4.4 0.7 56.2 58.1 2.9 3.5 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.5 4.7 2.8 0.8 58.7 59.6 2.9 4.1 5.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 4.8 4.8 3.6 1.1 62.0 60.2 3.9 4.4 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 1.7 2.6 0.6 0.0 46.4 51.8 2.2 2.8 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.7 5.6 4.4 1.0 60.7 58.5 3.8 5.1 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.0 3.0 2.7 0.9 61.2 60.2 1.6 2.3 3.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 2.8 2.2 0.3 1.1 59.9 62.2 -0.1 1.0 2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.6 4.6 0.4 54.1 54.7 3.6 4.6 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------